Israelis are heading into the October 27 election with a long list of worries, including the fallout from several wars, demands for accountability over security failures and rising living costs. One issue, however, has taken over much of the campaign: whether members of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority should be required to serve in the military.
An estimated 80,000 Haredi men between the ages of 18 and 24 are currently not serving. The number carries more weight each time new reports describe shortages of personnel in the Israeli army.
Draft exemption divides supporters and critics of the Haredim
Supporters of the Haredi parties in the Knesset, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), say their community protects the country’s core identity through religious study and prayer. Their opponents see something very different: men who avoid their share of duty during the many wars Israel has fought since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.
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Among the critics is the Zionist opposition bloc, which is running neck and neck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and the far-right coalition it leads. The draft question became so heated in May that Haredi anger over the jailing of draft evaders turned into street protests. Those demonstrations followed a 2024 Supreme Court ruling requiring the military to begin conscripting ultra-Orthodox men.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition has depended on Haredi backing, which the parties traded for softer rules on getting their supporters into the army. After Netanyahu told the parties he did not have the votes to pass an exemption bill, they pushed for the Knesset to be dissolved, a move that weakened the government.
Netanyahu’s stance on Haredi arrests draws mixed reactions
On Tuesday, Netanyahu said he was against the arrest of 40 Haredim, who were detained for dodging the draft after coming back to Israel from the United States. He made the remarks despite a law passed this year that was meant to pause such arrests for a time.
“We must preserve the world of Torah because it preserved us,” Netanyahu told the Haredi radio station Kol Barama. “These arrests are a deliberate attempt to harm the process of drafting Haredim without coercion.”
It remains unclear how these comments will be received by the wider public. The issue gives opponents a chance to push him out of office, while also exposing splits within his own political base. A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 72 percent of respondents wanted Haredim drafted alongside other Israelis eligible for service.
Tensions rose in early October, when a group of Haredim clashed with Israeli forces trying to arrest a draft dodger in Modi’in. Netanyahu’s rivals condemned the episode. Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party currently holds a narrow lead over Likud, said the clash reflected a mindset that treats draft evasion as normal and casts people who serve as fools. He framed the vote as a choice between “Netanyahu’s draft-dodging government, or a government of conscription led by me.”
Opposition to Haredi non-service has even surfaced inside Likud, where some lawmakers have argued that ultra-Orthodox exemptions could endanger the future of the State of Israel.
Daniel Bar-Tal, a professor of psychology at Tel Aviv University, described the situation as a contradiction. “It is a paradox,” he said. “On the one hand, the issue of equal service unites all the secular and Zionist religious public. On the other side, the ultra-Orthodox are rightist … This does not go together, so [Netanyahu] has a dilemma.”
Haredi parties refuse to yield as costs of war mount
Public anger over the refusal to serve is strong, and so is the risk to allies in the Knesset who are working to keep the exemption in place. Even so, the Haredi position has not softened. Shas and UTJ have said they will not join any coalition that fails to pass laws exempting their members from military service, even if that rules out forming a government friendly to the ultra-Orthodox.
“This is a big deal,” said Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak. “The opposition parties are trying to pitch the election as the draft dodgers versus those who protect and serve – and that is the decisive point of the election.”
The polls next week will be the first held since the war in Gaza began in October 2023. The report cites a death toll of nearly 74,400 in Gaza and says most of the besieged territory has been left in ruins, along with the wider regional conflicts that followed.
The military campaigns have placed heavy strain on state finances, and the high cost of living is a major source of discontent ahead of the vote. Higher taxes have added to household pressure. Surveys also show that families of reservists deployed to war zones face growing emotional and psychological strain, while household incomes have stagnated. An August survey found that 42 percent of Israelis said their finances had worsened since the Gaza war began three years ago, with reservists’ families hit hardest.
The Haredi community is also growing. It numbers 1.26 million, or 12.5 percent of Israelis. Projections suggest that by 2065, between 20 and 33 percent of the population could be Haredi, with many choosing Torah study over work or army service.
Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, said the burden of service has become far heavier while the Haredi sector keeps expanding. “Which means that a large cohort of potential soldiers does not ease the burden on others,” he said. He added that the firm refusal of Haredi leaders to consider change during such dangerous times has convinced many Israelis that the community depends on the state financially and contributes little in return.
