With less than a week until the Ballon d’Or winners are announced, speculation is growing over who will take this year’s prize in the men’s category. The award has been notoriously unpredictable, but veteran Harry Kane, record-breaking Lionel Messi and teenager Lamine Yamal are considered favourites.
Organisers say the trophy is awarded on three criteria, ranked in order of importance. Shortlisted players will be judged on their performances between August 3, 2025 and July 19, 2026, which is the day of this year’s World Cup final. The 30-player shortlist includes three former winners: Messi, Ousmane Dembele of France and Rodri of Spain.
Messi, Dembele and Ronaldo shape the record books
Messi has won the award a record eight times, in 2009 to 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2023. All of Argentina’s Ballon d’Or trophies have gone to the 39-year-old. He announced his retirement from international football in August, after leading Argentina to runners-up at the World Cup and winning the Major League Soccer title with Inter Miami.
Last year’s winner, Dembele, took France’s tally to a record eight awards, which have been won by six men across several generations. Teammates who helped France finish fourth at the World Cup, including Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano, are also on the shortlist.
Portugal’s seven awards have come from just three men: Eusebio in 1965, Luis Figo in 2000, and Cristiano Ronaldo, who won five times. Ronaldo has been excluded from the shortlist for a fourth consecutive year. Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves and Vitinha could give Portugal an eighth win.
Germany, the Netherlands and Brazil seek renewed success
Germany last produced a winner in 1996, when Matthias Sammer took the award, although the country enjoyed success in earlier years. No German player has made the shortlist this year. The Netherlands is in a similar position, with its last success in the 1990s and no Dutch players shortlisted. Its seven prizes have come from three players.
Brazil’s first Ballon d’Or was won by Ronaldo in 1997, and the country has since recorded four more victories. Gabriel, Marquinhos and Vinicius Jr are on the 2026 shortlist, and any of them winning would give Brazil its first in two decades.
England’s hopes rest on Kane and his teammates
The ceremony returns to England, and hopes of a first trophy there are high. Stanley Matthews won the inaugural award in 1956. Kane, the English captain, has had one of his best seasons, scoring 73 goals for club and country and winning the Bundesliga title with Bayern Munich. He also led England to third place at the World Cup.
Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham are also on the shortlist.
Spain and Italy’s chances ahead of the vote
Italy’s five Ballons d’Or have come from five different players, and none has been won in the past two decades. Spain, by contrast, collected a handful of awards last year and looks poised to repeat that success following its World Cup victory.
Yamal, winner of last year’s Kopa Trophy, is joined on the shortlist by teammates Pau Cubarsi, who won the Best Young Player award at the World Cup, Marc Cucurella, Rodri, who took the Golden Ball at the tournament, Fabian Ruiz and Ferran Torres.
