The United States has carried out strikes on Iran after vessels were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, even as mediators keep trying to head off large-scale fighting between the two countries. Two projectiles hit Qeshm island on Friday night. The strikes were the latest in a series of air attacks on the southern island over recent weeks, aimed at Iranian air defences and missile launchers.
President Donald Trump described the strikes as “minor strikes”. Their timing has fed growing concern that the wider conflict between Washington and Tehran could escalate further.
Drone losses and claims of air defence success
Iran’s army said in the early hours of Saturday that it had destroyed a US-made MQ-9 drone using an unnamed new system. It did not provide further details about the system. Separately, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Friday that its air defences had intercepted an MQ-1. Reports cited by the group put that aircraft as the 16th of this model destroyed since the war began.
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These claims could not be independently confirmed in the source material. They are presented here as statements from the Iranian military and the IRGC.
Shipping disruption and mine risks in the Strait of Hormuz
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said at least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending on November 6. It said three of those vessels sank. A Western military intelligence agency has counted 88 projectile strikes since hostilities resumed in early July, but it warned that most attacks are going unreported.
UKMTO’s weekly report gave the following traffic figures:
- 170 outbound transits in the Strait of Hormuz
- 155 inbound transits in the Strait of Hormuz
- Traffic roughly 65 percent below pre-conflict levels
According to the report, most vessels that keep their transponders switched on are using the Iranian route to the north. However, many ships are still taking the southern route near Oman with their tracking systems turned off to move oil out of the waterway.
Iran’s armed forces have also warned that tankers and commercial ships using what it calls “unauthorised” routes risk being hit by naval mines. On Saturday, the navy said a tanker with its transponder off caught fire in the eastern part of the strait after hitting a mine. Washington says the mines have been cleared.
IRGC warns that no targets are off limits
For years, the IRGC said it was keeping the range of its ballistic missiles to about 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles), a limit it said was meant to reassure European countries that they would not be targeted. Commanders now say that restraint no longer applies. Trump has threatened to resume extensive air strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, and the commanders say nothing is off limits.
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi told reporters at an event on Saturday: “This limitation has been lifted for us,” referring to the missile range constraints. He said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had ordered an unrestrained military response to any future threats from Israel and the United States. Mohebbi also said the IRGC’s aerospace division had prepared “surprising defence achievements” that would be used if a new wave of major attacks began.
Mohebbi said the IRGC plans to unveil another underground “missile city” soon and will place some combat systems in public spaces so people can inspect them. He also said that if the Islamic republic decided to change its nuclear doctrine and build a bomb, the necessary preparations would be made.
On state television’s war-focused programme Be Vaght-e Iran (At Iran’s Time) over the weekend, presenters and analysts said Iran’s armed forces were ready to act and were watching Israel closely. One analyst said Iran had complete military information about Israel’s strategic chokepoints and warned that cutting off Iran’s water, electricity and natural gas would leave Israel in darkness and without water. “This is not a bluff, but a serious warning,” the analyst said.
Mediation efforts and analysts’ view of the conflict
Mediators have stepped up their efforts in recent weeks to prevent attacks that could damage the whole region, though the gains so far have been limited. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that he had held talks with 12 foreign ministers over the previous 48 hours. Those included top diplomats from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Araghchi said he had set out Tehran’s “fundamental positions”, including seven demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He also stressed the need for “regional security arrangements without the interference of superregional powers”. Security chief Mohsen Rezaei reportedly raised the same conditions with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow on Thursday, a trip that was also meant to deliver a message from Khamenei.
Political analyst Mostafa Najafi, who is said to be close to Iran’s security chief, described relations between Tehran and Washington as a “constant pendulum swing between war and negotiations” that is increasingly tilting towards conflict. Writing on X, he said the path to an end to the conflict would be far more complicated and time-consuming than many expected. He added that the historic defeat of Trump and the Republicans in this week’s US midterm elections could further complicate the picture.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, argued that three factors raise the risk of war in the short term after the elections, unless negotiations produce a breakthrough. He said the political cost of high fuel prices, driven largely by the war on Iran, has already been paid, and that no political milestone is coming soon to pressure Trump on the issue. In his view, pressure to reach a deal will ease.
Parsi also said pressure from hawks who favour war would grow, because Democrats are set to take control of Congress in early January and could limit their efforts to escalate the conflict. He pointed to the appointment of Stephen Miller, whom he described as a far-right, pro-Israel hawk, as chief of staff as a sign that Trump may not be ready to wind the war down. He further argued that Trump’s anger over how Iran has, in Trump’s view, ruined his presidency has added a vindictive element to his calculations. “Trump’s desire for vengeance,” Parsi said.
