Contacts through mediators have opened a possible diplomatic path between Iran and the United States, even as both sides say they are ready for renewed military escalation. After two days of Qatari-mediated talks, Iranian authorities said a deal remains possible, provided their demands are put into practice in a tangible way. At the same time, they have reaffirmed that they may expand attacks or carry out preemptive strikes if they judge that war is unavoidable.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told on Saturday that Iran was prepared for every scenario. He said Iran had upgraded its weaponry, addressed its vulnerabilities and tested new arms, and that its forces were at the highest level of readiness. US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the talks were going “fine”, but he also said Iranian authorities were not reliable.
Mediated talks and the search for sequencing
Trump ordered attacks alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, and he has repeatedly raised the prospect of striking the country’s civilian infrastructure again. In recent weeks he has suggested that such an attack could take place after the US midterm elections on November 3. Speaking at a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida, he told reporters that one or two sites remained to be dealt with, which he said could be done in 10 minutes, referring to further bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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According to Araghchi, the talks in Tehran on Friday and in Qatar on Saturday produced a concrete result. Iran’s proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz can now be enforced after a shorter period. Tehran had earlier offered seven days, but Araghchi said that period had been cut to two.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said there were “indications” of US interest in a negotiated settlement. She pointed to the continuing Qatar-mediated talks and to recent outreach by US Vice President JD Vance. She said Iran was seeking a series of concessions, while the United States insisted on progress on Iran’s nuclear programme before making any. “Therefore the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage,” she said. “Each side wants the other to act first.”
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Araghchi’s two-day offer suggested some flexibility on sequencing. That flexibility could let both sides claim an early diplomatic gain without immediately resolving their core disagreements. In a social media post, however, he said military statements showed the limits of that opening. He argued that Iran was determined to avoid a repeat of past cases in which talks or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed fighting.
Military warnings and threats to infrastructure
While the talks were under way on Saturday, the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he had met top military commanders earlier that day. According to the statement, he called for “maximum deterrence” through readiness to respond immediately “without geographical restriction” to any threat. Khamenei said the targets would include “tangible and intangible” US and Israeli assets. Iranian authorities have previously warned that if civilian infrastructure in Iran were attacked again, seabed cables and infrastructure across the region could also become targets.
After Khamenei’s statement, the commanders of the general staff of the armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular army each said separately that they were ready to launch missile, drone and other attacks if the conflict escalated. On Sunday, state media aired footage of missiles and drones being removed from large underground storage sites and deployed during the eight months of war so far.
Iranian authorities also said they expect further potential attacks from the US and Israel, including against Iran’s power grid. Gholamreza Jalali, commander of the National Organization for Passive Defense, said in a speech on Sunday that 14 sectors most dependent on electricity had been identified. He did not name them, but said they would need support if the war restarts. “Adopting preventive measures in the area of passive defence for the electricity grid is a fundamental principle that all authorities must follow up in their capacities,” he said. He added that officials were considering “network islanding” practices that would split the grid into segments so that not all of them would be hit at once.
Hormuz shipping attacks and Iran’s conditions
In and around the Strait of Hormuz, vessels continue to be attacked if they refuse to coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a body set up by Iranian authorities to enforce control over the waterway. At least four tankers were identified as hit on Friday and Saturday, though not all attacks are reported by vessels or monitors. The UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas was struck by three Iranian projectiles on Saturday, about 40 nautical miles south of Iran’s Lavan Island, deep in the Gulf.
Security chief Mohsen Rezaei told state television on Saturday night that transit through the strait and surrounding waters would not return to normal unless the US moved towards Iran’s conditions. According to Rezaei, Tehran wants the following steps before the sequencing can work:
- The US lifts its naval blockade, which has halted oil exports and most of Iran’s trade that once passed through its southern ports.
- Washington issues waivers for oil sanctions.
- Iran’s assets held abroad are unfrozen.
- Fighting on all regional fronts, including in Lebanon, stops.
- The US recognises a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement for Hormuz.
Rezaei said he had not yet responded to a letter from Vance, but described its tone as a positive change. Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based political analyst said to be linked with Rezaei, said that if the conditions were not met, the letter would likely go unanswered and talks, including on the nuclear programme, would not move to a higher level. Najafi wrote on X that it was unclear how willing Washington was to accept these demands, but that failing to recognise the rights Iran emphasised would lead to the collapse of negotiations.
The US has defended its Operation Economic Outcast, which combines the blockade, sanctions and pressure on overland trade and aviation. A US Treasury report prepared to inform Trump’s decision-making, which was made public by a news website, said no new oil had been loaded onto tankers at Iran’s terminals since August 25. It also showed that overseas crude deliveries had fallen. Iran’s year-on-year inflation neared 90 percent in September, and its national currency continued to weaken. The report said the combined measures had left Iran’s economy “crippled”, but it did not argue that the economy was close to collapse.
