The Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has released its latest astronomical forecast concerning the sighting of the Muharram moon, which marks the beginning of the new Islamic year 1448 AH. The agency projects that the new year will commence on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, following detailed observations of lunar phases.
SUPARCO’s statement highlights that the new moon is expected to be born at 7:54 am local time on June 15. However, the moon will only be 11 hours and 50 minutes old by the time of sunset on the same day, which significantly reduces the likelihood of its visibility. Additionally, in coastal regions, the time gap between sunset and moonset is anticipated to be approximately 40 minutes, further complicating the chances of spotting the crescent.
Given these astronomical conditions, SUPARCO has assessed the probability of sighting the Muharram crescent on the evening of June 15 as extremely low. Consequently, the first day of Muharram for the year 1448 AH is expected to fall on June 17. This forecast is based on scientific calculations and serves as a guide for the public and religious authorities.
In a significant development, SUPARCO emphasized that while their prediction provides a scientific perspective, the official and final determination of the moon sighting will rest with the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee. This committee traditionally makes the conclusive decision regarding the start of Islamic months, ensuring that religious observances align with established practices.
