OPEC+ oil-producing countries left their December production targets unchanged on Sunday, a move that suggests no further policy adjustments will come until next year. The group is still dealing with export disruptions caused by the Iran war.
Seven core members, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, reached the decision during an online meeting, OPEC said in a statement. Gulf members have been increasing exports that were hit for months by the conflict, but most are still producing well short of their assigned levels.
Who takes part in OPEC+ output decisions
OPEC+ brings together the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. In recent years, only the seven core members, along with the United Arab Emirates until it left OPEC in May, have taken part in the monthly output decisions.
All members of the 21-country group are scheduled to meet on November 29, when analysts expect them to set quotas for 2027. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, described the current choice as the simpler one. “Today’s decision was the easy one,” he said. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”
Oil prices and the outlook for 2027 supply
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday, with Brent crude settling at almost $118 a barrel, its highest level since April. Traders were preparing for a possible escalation in the Iran war following the US midterm elections.
The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 if flows from the Gulf return to normal. Leon said the group faces a difficult decision. “OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” he added, pointing to uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of any surplus once disrupted barrels return.
Capacity review shapes the 2027 baselines
The seven members spent much of 2026 raising output targets. In September, they finished phasing out a 1.65 million barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. At earlier meetings, they had held targets steady for October and November.
OPEC+ still has another layer of cuts, about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members through the end of 2026. Sources said the group must complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines, which will determine future quotas and how the remaining cuts are unwound.
The Iran war has disrupted projects to expand capacity across the Middle East, making estimates of future production potential uncertain, according to a report in October. As a result, the capacity review is now expected to be completed by mid-November.
