With four days left before the United States midterm elections, Democrats are ahead in national polling as both parties make their last appeals to voters. The race has also taken a legal turn in Alaska, where a dispute could hold up the result of a Senate contest. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has called off two weekend rallies and will campaign by telephone instead.
Democrats ahead in national polls and state surveys
According to RealClearPolling, Democrats stand at 51.4 percent nationally, while Republicans have 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points. Charles Franklin, a law and public policy professor who directs the Marquette Law School Poll, said Trump’s slipping approval ratings and worries about the economy were alarming Republicans.
The most recent Marquette poll in Wisconsin, carried out between October 14 and October 22 and published on October 28, gave Trump a 37 percent approval rating and 61 percent disapproval. Only 16 percent of those surveyed said their finances were better than a year earlier. Forty-two percent said they were worse off, and another 42 percent said things were roughly unchanged.
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Franklin said Democrats were showing more eagerness and more confidence that they would cast ballots. “Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” he said. He added that this gave Democrats a meaningful advantage and reflected Republican dissatisfaction with conditions across the country.
In Arizona, where living costs are rising, a retired voter said grocery prices had become a serious worry. “Every time we go to the grocery store, it makes me wonder what the heck is going on,” the voter said.
A survey released on Thursday put Democrat James Talarico on 49 percent in Texas, against 43 percent for Republican Ken Paxton. The same pollster found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan, 49 percent to 42 percent. Franklin cautioned that polls are not reliable forecasts, and said the close races could tilt either way because of polling errors or small shifts in voter preferences.
Final campaign stops in South Carolina, Texas and Georgia
Trump travelled to South Carolina to back Republican senator Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, who is facing Annie Andrews in a tight race. Speaking in Rock Hill, he urged people to vote and warned supporters not to assume victory. He said Graham was ahead but that he still needed to campaign for her. “In politics you never know, right? So you got to get out and vote.”
In Texas, Vice President JD Vance joined Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton at a rally in Weatherford, near Dallas. Vance told the crowd that Texas was not giving up and would not become like California.
Prominent Democrats also hit the road. On Wednesday, former president Barack Obama spoke in Georgia in support of Senator Jon Ossoff, criticising Trump’s handling of the economy and the war with Iran. Ossoff’s Republican challenger, Mike Collins, responded that the visit showed “the desperation of Jon Ossoff because he knows he’s losing.”
On Thursday, Talarico held a rally in Dallas as part of his closing tour, while former vice president Kamala Harris appeared with Ossoff at Clark Atlanta University to encourage young voters. Harris later spoke in Macon, Georgia, where she blamed the Trump administration for rising living costs and urged supporters to take part in local and statewide contests.
Alaska Senate seat faces a court battle over candidate names
A separate dispute in Alaska could push the outcome of a Senate race into court after polls close on November 3. The disagreement centres on two candidates called Dan Sullivan: the Republican incumbent senator and an independent candidate with the same name who is also registered as a Republican.
Trump has accused Democrats of bringing in an independent candidate to confuse voters and draw support away from the Republican senator. “It was a scheme. It was an election fraud. Total election fraud,” he said. The Justice Department has taken legal action over the matter. Democrat Mary Peltola denied the accusations, calling the dispute a distraction from affordability, the issue she said Alaskans want to discuss.
Correspondent Alan Fisher said the matter could have effects beyond Alaska if control of the Senate depends on the seat. “If this becomes the key seat in the battle for the Senate, we might not actually know who has control there for several days, maybe even weeks after November 3,” Fisher said.
Trump swaps Kansas and Iowa visits for telephone rallies
Trump has cancelled planned weekend appearances in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. In their place, he will hold telephone rallies reaching nearly 20 states in the final days before Tuesday’s vote. Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said the format would let Trump contact more voters than in-person events would allow. “Voters across the country want to hear from President Trump before Election Day, and this 72-hour sprint will be a huge boost in the closing days,” Gruters said.
Asked about the changes on Thursday, Trump questioned the need to go to Kansas, where Republican senator Roger Marshall is running against Democrat Adam Hamilton. “I don’t feel I have to go to Kansas,” he said. When a reporter asked whether fatigue from travel had played a part, Trump denied it, saying “I feel perfect” before insulting the reporter.
Trump is still due to hold a rally at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday at 23:00 GMT. Harris is scheduled to speak at the Fulton County Democratic Party’s Fulton Forward dinner in Atlanta, Georgia, the same day. Vance had also planned a news conference with the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud in St Cloud, Minnesota, on Friday, but cancelled it on Thursday. No reason was immediately given.
