Ukraine said it has recaptured more of its territory than Russia managed to seize this year, even though restrictions on US satellite services critical to its defence remain in place. Russia responded by striking dozens of Ukrainian energy facilities and using cluster bombs in attacks that harmed civilians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a public address that Ukrainian soldiers had liberated more territory since the beginning of autumn than Russian forces had captured. Ukrainian officials have pushed back on Russian claims to have seized 1,800 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory during the autumn, a claim General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovalev denied.
Ukraine claims net territorial gains since September
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that uses geolocated open-source information to track territorial movements, said Ukraine had made a net gain of 241 square kilometres since September 1. According to the institute, that effectively erased any Russian territorial gains for the year.
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The think tank’s assessment also pointed to Russian losses as a sign that the effectiveness of Russian forces was declining. Ukrainian estimates put Russian losses, meaning those killed or severely wounded, at around 30,000 a month from January to May. Those losses rose steadily over the summer, and Ukraine said Russia lost 46,230 soldiers in September, its highest monthly figure of the year.
Ukrainian estimates also put Russian losses at 37,000 so far in October. Robert Brovdi, commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine, said October 21 marked the highest daily loss of the entire war, at 2,250. Overall, Ukraine estimated more than 350,000 Russian dead and wounded since the start of the year.
Operation Vivaldi and the defence of Donetsk
Ukraine credited much of its gains to Operation Vivaldi, a counteroffensive that halted a Russian pincer movement aimed at recapturing the remaining one-fifth of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, roughly 5,500 square kilometres. General Andriy Biletskyi, who led Ukraine’s Third Army Corps in that campaign, said his forces eliminated a Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets river and crossed to the east bank.
Biletskyi said the move shortened his front line and concentrated artillery and unmanned aerial firepower, which stabilised the defence. He argued that the defeat of the pincer had left Russia with a costly option of a frontal assault on the heavily defended “fortress belt” of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Druzhivka. He told Ukrainian media that Russia had “temporarily abandoned this plan, although it plans to resume it.”
A Russian military expert, Andrey Marochko, told a Russian state news agency that Ukraine was reinforcing the fortress cities. Russia has responded to its setbacks on the battlefield by increasing the ferocity of its attacks on civilians, according to the reporting.
Cluster warheads fired at Kyiv and energy grid
On October 22, Russia flew three ballistic missiles with cluster warheads into Kyiv, Zelenskyy said. One warhead struck an area between the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra cathedral and a monastery.
Ukrainian Defence Ministry senior adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov described the weapon’s design. “This warhead detonates above the ground and is specifically designed to inflict maximum damage on people and equipment within an area of 400 by 400 metres,” he said, adding: “45 submunitions explode in the air.”
Zelenskyy said there was “not even theoretically any military object nearby” and called the choice of weapon and area deliberate. Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed it had targeted an assembly building for FP-5 long-range drones and FP-9 missiles that Ukraine has used against Russia, along with other drone manufacturing sites.
Russia has also relentlessly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, despite a energy ceasefire for both sides declared by United States President Donald Trump on October 11. Zelenskyy said there had been more than 170 strikes on that infrastructure since the ceasefire was announced.
Prime Minister Serhiy Khoretskyi said in an interview that Russia was not achieving significant results on the front lines. “Therefore, it is directing all its aggression and hatred towards terrorising civilian infrastructure: electricity, heating, and now, water. The goal is clear – to exhaust the people,” he said. He added that Russia had attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure 2,147 times since he took office on July 16.
US satellite restrictions and talks on a trilateral meeting
Ukraine’s defence has also been hampered by the United States, which reportedly stopped providing early warning of incoming ballistic missiles on October 8, for the second time this year. Zelenskyy said that early warning was restored on October 20, but three other US actions that he described as harmful to Ukraine’s defence had not been reversed:
- Trump’s waiver of oil export sanctions on Russia, formalised by an executive order on October 16 and intended to lower the price of diesel.
- The US has not released Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, despite having previously supplied a dozen a month and despite Europe having paid for them.
- Ukraine’s suspended ability to fly drones faster than 150 kilometres an hour using the Starshield satellite navigation system.
Ukraine has said it cannot intercept fast-moving, jet-powered drones at such speeds, and that its attacks on Russian logistics and drone resupply of its front lines are more vulnerable as a result. Starshield is a military application of Starlink, which is owned by Elon Musk. Musk and the White House traded blame over the decision to restrict it during the week. Trump said on October 22 that Starlink and Starshield services were about to be restored.
The US appeared to use its diesel sanctions waiver and the Starshield suspension to push for a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia and Ukraine. US envoy Steve Witkoff met Zelenskyy in Oslo on October 20 and met Putin in St Petersburg the following day. Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia had agreed “in principle” to meet on November 10, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the meeting would be held in Abu Dhabi.
