ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has released its preliminary forecast for the date of Eid ul Fitr in 2026, suggesting that the festive occasion will most likely be observed on March 21. This prediction is grounded in meticulous astronomical calculations related to the visibility of the Shawwal crescent moon, which marks the end of Ramadan and the beginning of the new Islamic month.
SUPARCO’s analysis indicates that the new moon, or the conjunction of the Shawwal month, will occur on March 19 at precisely 6:23 a.m. local time. By the time the sun sets on the same day, the moon will have aged approximately 12 hours and 41 minutes. This age is a critical factor in determining whether the crescent moon can be sighted, as the visibility depends on the moon’s position relative to the sun and the horizon.
Further details from the space agency highlight that along Pakistan’s coastal regions, the interval between sunset and moonset on March 19 is expected to be around 28 minutes. While this window provides some opportunity for moon sighting, SUPARCO has cautioned that the likelihood of actually spotting the Shawwal crescent on that evening remains quite low. This is due to the moon’s relatively young age and the atmospheric conditions that typically affect visibility.
Taking these astronomical factors into account, SUPARCO projects that the first day of Shawwal 1447 AH will most likely fall on Saturday, March 21, 2026. Consequently, Eid ul Fitr celebrations in Pakistan are anticipated to commence on this date. However, it is important to note that the final and official confirmation regarding the start of Shawwal will be made by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee. This committee holds the religious authority to declare the beginning of Islamic months in Pakistan based on actual moon sightings, in accordance with Islamic tradition and jurisprudence.
Meanwhile, in the Gulf region, the Al-Ujairi Scientific Center in Kuwait has also shared its forecast for Eid ul Fitr 2026. The center’s calculations suggest that the crescent moon of Shawwal will not be visible on the evening of Wednesday, March 18, 2026, which corresponds to the 29th day of Ramadan 1447 AH. Their detailed astronomical maps and data show that the moon will set before the sun in Kuwait and many other countries on that date, making crescent sighting impossible.
The Al-Ujairi Scientific Center further explained that the new moon’s conjunction is expected to occur around 4:23 a.m. on Thursday, March 19, Kuwait time. Since this timing is after sunset on the previous day, the crescent cannot be observed on the night of March 18. Based on these findings, the center anticipates that Ramadan will complete its full 30-day cycle, with March 19 marking the last day of fasting. This would mean that Eid al-Fitr will likely be celebrated on Friday, March 20, 2026, in Kuwait.
It is worth emphasizing that, despite these scientific predictions, the official commencement of Islamic months and festivals is always subject to confirmation by the respective religious authorities in each country. These bodies follow established Sharia-compliant moon sighting procedures to ensure that the observance of holy months aligns with Islamic teachings and community consensus.
