There was no clear winner in New Zealand’s election on Saturday, and the leaders of the country’s two major parties are preparing for negotiations to form a coalition government, preliminary results show. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party won 42 seats and is the largest party, but it was 19 short of the simple majority needed to form a government.
Combined with its coalition partners, ACT and New Zealand First, National would have a slim lead over the left-leaning bloc if a deal could be reached. Opposition leader Chris Hipkins, whose Labour Party won 36 seats, did not concede. He said the “shape of the next government” would remain uncertain “for a while.”
Party seat projections and vote share
The tight result followed a campaign shaped by the cost of living and unemployment. Projections show the seat totals for each party as follows.
- National: 42 seats
- Labour: 36 seats
- Greens: 16 seats
- ACT: 13 seats
- New Zealand First: 12 seats
- Opportunity Party: 7 seats
- Te Pāti Māori, which represents Māori interests: 5 seats
More than 99% of votes have been counted, with National and Labour neck-and-neck in terms of vote share. The preliminary results nonetheless point to historically low support for the two major parties, whose combined vote share is around 60%.
The electoral commission is not due to announce the official result until 27 November.
Luxon and Hipkins outline next steps
Luxon congratulated Hipkins on a “very hard-fought race” before addressing party colleagues. He said, “whatever the final count, we are incredibly proud of each and everyone for you.” He added that he would lead a caretaker government until the final results are confirmed later in the month, saying, “With those final results there can then be meaningful negotiations.”
Hipkins said “the people have spoken,” adding, “It may take a bit longer to work out what they’ve said.” He said the results made clear that the next parliament would require everyone to compromise, work together and find common ground.
The Greens, who saw their vote rise by a couple of percentage points, have proposed forcing the country’s two main supermarkets to divest stores to create publicly owned shops.
Opportunity Party could decide who governs
The Opportunity Party crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time. Its leader, Qiulae Wong, said the party would work with either side. It has been described as the kingmaker of this election because it remains open to working with either major bloc, but its leaders said they would negotiate first with the party that secures the most seats.
Speaking at the party’s watch party, Wong told supporters: “We believe that we can change the way we do politics to focus on the future, on the next generation, and on finding common ground.”
Professor Andrew Geddis of the University of Otago, an expert in election law, said “the Opportunity Party as a wildcard player” could “determine which bloc of parties is able to govern.” He said the outcome would come down to very fine vote margins, not only between parties but also in individual electorates, and that special votes would need about three weeks to be processed and counted. Special votes are cast outside a voter’s electorate, including overseas.
Julian McCrann, head of polling at Roy Morgan, said the cost of living was the main issue for many New Zealanders. He said that three years ago Luxon had promised to make New Zealanders’ lives better and solve economic issues, “but he hasn’t really delivered.” An annual social cohesion survey found that more than half of the country no longer sees New Zealand as a land of opportunity, and record numbers of Kiwis have been leaving, many for Australia.
New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional voting system, which means most governments are coalitions. Each voter makes two choices: a representative for their constituency in parliament and a political party.
