Minister for Climate Change Musadik Malik delivered a passionate speech this week, portraying the unraveling of the Indus Waters Treaty as a critical challenge for water rights of downstream nations worldwide. He began by recounting the story of Iqbal Solangi, a Pakistani farmer whose family had cultivated the land for seven or eight generations before repeated flooding in 2010, 2012, and again in 2022 forced him to abandon farming. Solangi now works as a laborer in Karachi. “Generations of farming lost to water,” Malik emphasized, noting that Solangi’s experience is not isolated.
He highlighted similar struggles faced by farmers in Bangladesh who rely on water flows for fishing and agriculture, and a woman in the Sahel region who walks nearly four miles daily to collect a single bucket of water after a nearby river receded due to upstream diversion. “This is not a crisis in her life,” Malik remarked. “This is her life.”
Malik argued that the underlying issue connecting Pakistan’s floods and droughts with crises along the Nile, Tigris, Mekong, and the former Aral Sea is not simply an abundance or scarcity of water, but the loss of control over its flow. “The danger is not just too little water or too much water,” he explained. “The danger is that someone else who is not you controls the tap through which your water is going to flow.”
He cited data showing that flows at the Marala barrage fluctuated dramatically from 1,500 cusecs to 78,000 cusecs and back to 1,500 cusecs without rainfall changes to justify such swings, pointing to evidence of upstream manipulation. Malik underscored the importance of water to Pakistan’s economy and livelihood, noting that about half the population—approximately 120 million people—depend on agriculture, which contributes around 25 percent of the country’s GDP and is vital for food security.
In a significant development, Malik linked the dispute to climate change, identifying the country responsible for controlling the water flow as the world’s third-largest greenhouse gas emitter. He connected its emissions to glacier melt and downstream flooding in Pakistan, which over the past 15 years have resulted in 6,000 deaths, 19,000 injuries or disabilities, and displacement of 40 million people. Additionally, he cited 1.8 billion lost school days due to prolonged displacement caused by flooding.
Rejecting the notion that the Indus Waters Treaty—surviving three wars between the nuclear-armed neighbors—is merely suspended or dormant, Malik declared, “It is simply that the treaty has been revealed, and that’s all there is to it.” He highlighted Pakistan’s recourse to international arbitration, which issued rulings limiting unilateral technical alterations to water infrastructure. However, he criticized the opposing party’s refusal to accept the court’s jurisdiction, calling it a dangerous precedent.
“Does it mean tomorrow anyone can get up, any nuclear state can say… I don’t accept the world order, I don’t accept treaties, I don’t accept rights, I don’t accept justice?” Malik questioned. He expanded his argument into a global context, asserting that if this precedent stands, no downstream nation will retain water rights. He referenced the Rhine River flowing into the Netherlands, the Danube’s 19 riparian states, the Tisza, and the Nile as comparable examples.
“This is not Pakistan’s case,” Malik stated. “This is the case and test for water rights for all downstream billions […] who live downstream.” He urged the international community to move beyond non-binding declarations and establish a binding covenant on water governance, similar to existing frameworks for trade and nuclear non-proliferation.
“There must be a covenant which has political consequences, which has economic consequences, which has diplomatic consequences,” Malik concluded. “So rise now or hold your peace forever.”
