Extreme heat driven by this year’s “super-El Niño” phenomenon could lead to as many as 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between June 2023 and February 2027, findings from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The report highlights a 44 percent increase in the number of extremely hot days compared to typical years, intensifying health risks globally. Nigeria is projected to suffer the highest toll, with an estimated 31,400 excess heat-related fatalities expected between September 2026 and February 2027. Indonesia and Sudan follow, with anticipated deaths of 19,300 and 17,600, respectively.
Notably, the Sahel region of Africa—including Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Sudan—could experience an additional 66,800 deaths over this six-month period due to rising temperatures. Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia may collectively face around 19,400 excess deaths.
Meanwhile, the death toll could escalate further if El Niño conditions persist into 2027. Key northern hemisphere countries, particularly India and Pakistan, are especially vulnerable during their summer months.
In a significant development, the Climate Impact Lab described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from the future,” signaling temperature levels that are expected to become the norm within a few decades. The report urges prioritizing emergency response efforts in the most affected regions to mitigate heat-related mortality in the coming months.
Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, emphasized the importance of the findings, stating that the data enables decision-makers to identify where urgent interventions can save tens of thousands of lives in the near term.
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