Ukraine’s military says Russian casualties reached 49,040 in October, according to a General Staff estimate of dead and incapacitated troops as of October 28. The figure is a new monthly high, well above the 46,230 recorded in September, and it comes close to a target set by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January: at least 50,000 enemy casualties a month by the end of 2026.
Zelenskyy has described that level of losses as one at which Russian casualties exceed the number of reinforcements Moscow can send. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi called the figures a “massive industrial slaughter”. Casualty estimates from either side cannot be independently verified, though Ukraine says it has video documentation of each strike.
Drone production and European funding push
Aerial drones are responsible for most of the casualties Ukraine says it inflicts. This week, Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara asked European allies to fund a doubling of drone output next year, to about 16 million units. He said the aim was to expand joint production of Ukrainian drones in other countries.
Also read: Russian drone strike on Dnipro station kills at least 13
Zelenskyy has said Ukraine could triple drone production if it had enough money. Kyiv has concluded that mass is the decisive factor in firepower against Russia. Serhiy Beskrestnov, an adviser at the Defence Ministry, said the evidence points to a preference for quantity over technical sophistication. “Mass production and simplicity will overcome technology,” he said.
On October 28, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom moved to support that goal. The Netherlands said it would provide 500 million euros ($560m) in immediate additional military aid and 1.2 billion euros ($1.34bn) in extra financing. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham increased Britain’s commitments by 10 billion pounds ($13.4bn) over three years, with 3 billion pounds ($4bn) earmarked for weapons.
Starlink outage, satellite plans and interceptor shortfalls
Ukraine said its Starlink satellite navigation services had returned to normal on October 24. The Defence Ministry said communication remained stable at speeds above 400km/h. The restoration followed an October 14 report that Ukraine was losing control of its drones above about 150km/h, which made it hard to defend against Russian jet-powered drones flying faster than 500km/h.
Starlink owner Elon Musk initially denied involvement, but on October 24 he said he had closed a loophole that had allowed Ukraine to use Starlink for offensive operations. Ukraine appeared to be looking beyond Starlink and its Pentagon-owned military-grade service, Starshield. On October 22, Ukraine and Finland announced joint development of an independent sovereign military satellite system. Poland-based ICEYE and Finnish Nokia said they would partner on the project, which is due to begin launching satellites in 2028.
Ukraine said the speed restrictions on Starlink had damaged its ability to intercept Russian jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones while they lasted. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said the 10-day outage lowered Ukraine’s interception rate from 77 percent to 74 percent. Ukrainian Air Force data nonetheless showed Ukraine shooting down at least 75 percent of jet-powered drones in the week ending October 29, far above the three-month average of 60 percent.
Many Russian drones still get through. One struck a train platform in the central city of Dnipro on October 29, killing at least 14 people. Ukraine is also concerned that the US administration is slow to send ballistic missile interceptors that European allies have paid for. Zelenskyy said the recent delays in Patriot and NASAMS interceptor deliveries were directly helping Russia pursue its terrorist campaign, after Russian ballistic missiles hit a university campus in downtown Kyiv on October 27.
Strikes inside Russia and an underground pipeline operation
Ukraine also struck targets in Russia during the past week. On October 23, its missiles destroyed the main microchip production building of Proton-Electrotex in Orel, a plant that makes missile components. During the same week, Ukraine damaged five chemical plants that produce solid rocket propellants used in missiles: NAK Azot, Toliattykauchuk, Omskiy Kauchuk, Energiya and Voronezhsintezkauchuk. It also hit the Voronezh Aircraft Company and VSMPO-AVISMA, which build airframes or supply their metals.
On October 22, the Khartiia Corps, which began as a volunteer unit and is now part of the National Guard, said it had cleared Russian infiltrators from a disused gas pipeline. Russian forces had been using the pipeline to move troops from occupied parts of Kharkiv to the front-line city of Kupiansk. Brigadier General Ihor Oboloenskyi said Operation Veles advanced 15km (10 miles) underground through the pipeline and tunnels to emerge behind Russian positions. Khartiia Corps said the attacks from pipes and tunnels were coordinated with overland assaults and drones, killing or wounding 100 Russian soldiers and capturing 30.
Zelenskyy said Russia had tried to use underground gas pipelines to bypass Ukrainian positions, and that Ukrainian forces had turned the tactic against them. Viktor Tregubov, a spokesman for the United Forces Group, said Russian forces had also used the pipelines to evacuate their wounded and were filmed marching Ukrainian civilians among them as human shields. Khartiia Corps officer Vladimir Dektyarev said the Russians had remained trapped for more than a month before running out of food. Ukraine described the operation as the third this year in which its forces pushed Russian troops back and retook land. Separately, Ukrainian forces were reported to have liberated the settlements of Peredubova, Komar and Fedorivka on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border.
Talks set for November 10 face low expectations
The United States is still on track to bring Ukrainian and Russian technical teams to the negotiating table on November 10. Zelenskyy has backed a ceasefire covering energy infrastructure and grain exports. Russia, however, has played down expectations. President Vladimir Putin described Ukraine as “the territory of historical Russia” on October 22, denied the existence of a Ukrainian people, and refused a ceasefire on energy infrastructure. His foreign policy adviser, Valery Ushakov, said the talks “will not resolve much”.
On October 27, the prime ministers of Norway and the president of Finland held a call with Putin, their first contact with him since taking office. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the conversation as “Europeans’ desire to squeeze into the negotiation process.”
