Americans go to the polls on 3 November to decide how the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency will play out. Thousands of races are taking place across the country at different levels of government, but the main contest for voters is the election of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that make up Congress.
Both chambers are currently controlled by the Republicans, the president’s party. The outcome could determine whether the final two years of Trump’s time in office go smoothly or become a struggle.
Trump’s approval rating and the battle for the House
The opposition Democrats have a real chance of retaking Congress, largely because of the president’s low approval rating, which is seen as a good indicator of how his party could perform. Polling resource Silver Bulletin put his rating at just over 50% when he began his second term, but it quickly slipped into the 40s.
It was hovering around 42% when Trump ordered air strikes against Iran with Israel at the end of February, and it fell below 40% shortly afterwards. It is now sitting at about 37%. At the same point in his first term, eight years ago, his rating was 43%, and Joe Biden’s was 40%. In both cases the sitting president lost control of the House in the midterms but kept the Senate.
The Republican majority in the House is extremely narrow. The party holds 218 seats, the exact number needed for control, and has one independent who votes with them. All 435 House seats are up for election in November, since members serve two-year terms.
Most districts are not seen as competitive, because the party that holds each one has such solid support that there is effectively only one likely winner. The Cook Political Report, which analyses campaigns and elections, says just 21 districts are toss-ups that could go either way. Of those, 15 are held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If Democrats win five of them and also hold the 28 districts classed as likely or leaning Democratic, they will take the House.
Historically, midterms see many seats change hands in the House, often as a protest against the White House. Data cited in the source show that since 1934 the president’s party has lost an average of 27 seats, and in 23 elections it gained seats in only three.
Senate races in Michigan, Texas and beyond
Republicans have a slightly firmer grip on the Senate, holding 53 of the 100 seats. Democrats have 45, and two independents vote with them. Senators serve six-year terms, so roughly a third of the chamber is up for election every two years.
This time 35 seats are up for grabs, but the Cook Political Report sees only seven as toss-ups. Six are held by Republicans and one by Democrats. To reach 51 seats and take control, Democrats would need to win four of those toss-ups along with the four seats classed as likely or leaning Democratic.
Winning a majority will not be easy. Democrats must hold their seat in Michigan, where polls suggest the race is tighter than they would like. The contest there is between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and Republican Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent. Democrats would also need to win seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
Polls suggest Democrats have a chance even in Texas. James Talarico, a former teacher, could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and a close Trump ally.
Cost of living and campaign money
Trump pledged during his 2024 campaign to “end inflation and make America affordable again”, but the cost of living is proving to be the key issue for voters. In his State of the Union address on 24 February, he said gas was “now below $2.30 a gallon in most states”. The war with Iran began four days later, disrupting energy supplies in the Middle East, and petrol prices in the US rose to $4 a gallon.
The source notes that the war grew steadily less popular as its effects spread and hit American consumers. One poll carried out in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the situation. Voters also say healthcare and immigration matter to them. Trump has promoted his immigration policies as a major success, pointing to much lower border-crossing figures than in recent years. Many Democratic candidates are focusing on the high cost of health insurance and the effect of Trump’s legislation on access to healthcare.
Money is another major factor, and here Republicans hold the advantage. At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had more than $600m in cash on hand, while the Democrats had just under $400m. Trump’s MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the “Make America Great Again” movement, also held more than $400m.
Republicans are using that money on advertising. Research firm AdImpact estimates that more than $1bn worth of political ads were broadcast to US voters in September. Republicans spent $200m more than Democrats and outspent them in nearly all of the Senate races classed as toss-ups. Trump is expected to rely on this late advertising push to motivate Republicans to turn out in November and limit the damage to him and his party.
Whatever the result, attention will quickly move to the 2028 presidential election. Trump cannot run for a third term because of the constitution, so the focus is likely to shift from his unpopularity to what the Democrats stand for, not only what they oppose.
