President Donald Trump announced a deal on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin that would supply the US with hundreds of millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel in the coming months. The move comes weeks before elections that will decide control of Congress, with American voters already casting ballots in some battleground states. Trump has been seeking ways to bring down fuel prices, which have become a growing source of frustration for voters.
Within two days, Trump was promoting a new energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The announcement was far from settled, however. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had no advance notice of the agreement, though he said his country would abide by it. Russia did not comment, and on Sunday night it launched a new wave of attacks on Ukrainian power plants.
Trump’s diesel deal aimed at lowering prices
Trump announced the diesel arrangement on Friday afternoon and promoted it in a Truth Social post, saying it would bring “lower prices for Americans.” He also ordered his Treasury Department to suspend US restrictions that had prevented Russian diesel from being sold on global markets.
High energy prices have hit farming states in the Midwest particularly hard, since farmers rely on diesel to power machinery and transport goods to market. Polls suggest many voters blame the Iran war for their economic troubles. Support for Trump, and approval of his handling of the war and the economy, has fallen sharply.
The effect on prices has so far been limited. Diesel continues to sit below its record highs but remains well above $6 a gallon, even after the announcement of the ceasefire.
Zelensky’s reaction and the disputed energy ceasefire
Zelensky responded to the ceasefire with pointed humour. “It’s clear that Putin does not read Truth Social,” he said on Monday. He also warned that if Russia did not agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine would respond, adding: “This winter, if Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire, we will respond.”
Trump and Zelensky have had a turbulent relationship throughout Trump’s second term. Trump has alternated between blaming Russia and Ukraine for the continuing conflict, which he had previously said would be easy to end once he returned to the White House. In recent days, Zelensky has become the main target of Trump’s anger, as Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have contributed to worldwide energy shortages.
On Saturday, Trump told reporters at the White House that it was time for Ukraine to get a new president. Reports said the US had threatened to cut off arms sales and intelligence sharing if Zelensky did not halt attacks on Russian refineries. Trump said Zelensky “better damn well stop.”
Terry Haines, founder of the independent think-tank Pangaea Policy, said the president had a long public record of lashing out at people who did not do what he wanted, when and how he wanted it done. Analysts suggested that Trump’s celebration of the “energy truce” may have been a familiar move, since he has previously announced Middle East ceasefires and sweeping peace agreements before they were finalised.
Allies and Republicans question the Russian diesel deal
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a vocal critic of the president on the international stage, gave “strong support” to the energy ceasefire. He condemned the diesel deal, however, saying it undermined peace and stability in Europe and helped Russia finance what he called its “illegal, unjustifiable war against Ukraine.”
Within the US, the diesel announcement drew concern even from members of Trump’s own party. Four Republican senators joined Democrats in a letter urging the president to “immediately reverse course.” In a statement released on Sunday, the senators wrote that Congress had explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin’s war against Ukraine. They argued that Trump’s decision to allow Russian diesel imports ran directly counter to that law.
Middle East violence adds to energy market strain
While the Russia-Ukraine developments unfolded, new violence in the Middle East threatened to strain global energy markets further, whatever happens with Russian oil. A wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend included strikes on airports and energy infrastructure that killed at least 13 people. The attacks threatened to escalate a decade-long conflict that had been simmering during the US-Iran war.
Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said the attacks showed the Houthis were willing to target civilian airports. “I do think it gets uglier before it really deescalates,” he said. He added that the US-Iran war was a conflict none of the Arab nations in the region had wanted. With the US and Iran in an extended stand-off, he warned that any new hostilities could lead to more regional conflict and send oil prices soaring again.
In recent weeks, Trump has pointed to Ukraine, rather than the Middle East, as the main source of the world’s energy problems. He has cited increased oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran’s military threat had effectively shut. Critics may see that claim as an attempt to direct American anger over energy costs toward a conflict that began under a previous president. Voters, however, tend to hold those in power responsible when they cast their ballots.
