Experts say Israel’s relationship with Europe, which has deteriorated sharply over the war in Gaza, may never fully recover. The warning comes as Israel prepares for an election on October 27 that is too close to call.
The bond once extended well beyond diplomacy. Israeli teams took part in European football, Israel competed in Eurovision, and its intelligence services worked with European governments. Its arms industry was also tied into European manufacturing. On April 23, 2023, marking Israel’s 75th anniversary, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe and Israel were destined to be friends and allies.
European capitals distance themselves from Israel
Those connections still exist, but they have become points of contention since Israel’s offensive in Gaza, which has killed at least 74,000 Palestinians. Several European countries pulled out of Eurovision over Israel’s participation, and some footballers have refused to play against Israeli sides. Expressions of friendship have in some cases been reinterpreted as criticism.
Ireland and Spain have been among the most vocal critics of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians for a long time. At the recent UN General Assembly, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin said Israel’s conduct in Gaza would bring shame on the world. Spain’s Pedro Sanchez accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of carrying out genocide in Gaza and said Spain unequivocally condemned it.
Britain, whose Balfour Declaration helped lay the groundwork for Israel’s creation, has also changed course. It recently banned goods from illegal settlements, and its foreign secretary accused Israeli settlers of ethnic cleansing. Those steps, officials and analysts say, show how far attitudes have shifted in roughly three years.
On Saturday, settlers attacked diplomats and officials from Belgium, France and Poland who were visiting Palestinian olive harvesters near the village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank. The attack came a day after settlers assaulted a United States journalist north of Ramallah. The incident drew wide international condemnation.
Whether a Netanyahu return would alter the course
Scarred relations may never fully heal, experts said. Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, said that if Netanyahu returns to power with the far right, some outcomes would become permanent. In his words, the damage done by this government is deep.
Nicola Perugini, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Edinburgh, warned that re-electing Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), would leave Gaza’s population struggling under conditions he described as unliveable. Analysts note that a coalition including more liberal parties might slow settlement expansion. Still, keeping a leader wanted by the ICC at the helm would likely keep worsening relations with Europe.
Experts also cautioned that replacing Netanyahu would not automatically end the policies behind European criticism. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the centrist Yashar party and is seen as Netanyahu’s main challenger, has opposed Palestinian statehood. An annual survey by the Mitvim Institute last year found that 67 percent of Israelis viewed the EU more as an adversary, while 14 percent saw it as a friend.
Mekelberg believes a more liberal government could bring a more rational dialogue with Europe, though he warned that change would not come overnight. Analysts said more humanitarian aid could reach Palestinians and settlement growth could slow, and the E1 settlement plan could be dropped. Julie M Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said those steps might not be enough for European governments to repair ties. They would also look for concrete progress towards Palestinian statehood and an end to the occupation. “But so far, we’re not seeing that under the current government and probably not under the next,” she said.
Public pressure reshapes Western positions on Israel
At the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, Western leaders backed its campaign. Analysts said that position changed under sustained pressure from civil rights groups, international courts, trade unions, professional bodies and millions of protesters worldwide. Neve Gordon, an Israeli professor of human rights law at Queen Mary University of London, said ruling elites in several countries were now trying to align with public opinion. He argued the pro-Palestinian movement had altered what governments regard as common sense.
Pew Research Center polling showed the share of people viewing Israel unfavourably rising in several countries. In Britain it climbed from 61 to 69 percent between spring 2025 and spring this year. In Italy it went from 66 to 75 percent, and in Germany, one of Israel’s strongest allies, from 64 to 73 percent.
Nathalie Tocci, an Italian political scientist, linked that public pressure to moves such as recognising a Palestinian state, possible suspension of the EU-Israel association agreement, and bans on settlement imports. “If anything has had any impact on European policy towards Israel, it is precisely the wave of protests over the last few years,” she said. Norman added that European states had moved from targeted sanctions on far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich towards broader scrutiny of the Israeli state itself.
Support for Israel has not disappeared, however. Janina Dill, a professor at Oxford University, said two successive German governments had been unwilling to respond to justified public criticism of Germany’s diplomatic and material support for Israel. Meanwhile, Israel has cultivated links with Europe’s far right, finding common ground in nationalism and hostility towards Islam, despite the historic and ongoing ties of parts of that movement to anti-Semitism.
Israeli voters focus on security over diplomacy
Menachem Klein, a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, told that the current government has caused serious harm to relations with allies and friends, and that repairing them will take time. Mekelberg said better relations would require concrete steps towards a peace process and a different future for Palestinians, and even then the damage would last.
The Israeli election debate has centred on security rather than the morality of the continued killing of Palestinians or the country’s standing abroad. Israel Democracy Institute polling in April found that 92 percent of Jewish Israelis highly rated the military’s handling of the Iran war. Eighty percent backed continuing the fight against Hezbollah, even at the cost of friction with Washington. In September, Jewish People Policy Institute polling found that 72 percent of Jewish Israelis would reject a withdrawal to Gaza’s border unless Israel kept a security perimeter inside the territory.
Diplomatic isolation might seem an obvious election issue, but Yaakov Katz, cofounder of the Middle East American Dialogue Forum, wrote in a Chatham House article that it is barely discussed. The main themes are the weakening of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, while the opposition promises to lower living costs, investigate the failures surrounding October 7 and draft ultra-Orthodox men into the military. Katz argued Israelis are aware of campus protests, arms embargoes, European sanctions and recognition of a Palestinian state, but that the October 7 attack has shaped public opinion so strongly that criticism from abroad is seen either as anti-Semitic or as ignorant.
