Delegations from nearly 200 countries convene in Antalya, Turkiye, on Monday for two weeks of United Nations climate negotiations. The 31st UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP31, is taking place in the Mediterranean coastal city. Organisers and observers face a difficult setting, with energy security concerns linked to war, rising electricity use driven by artificial intelligence, and the withdrawal of the United States from international climate cooperation all threatening progress on global warming.
Countries are dealing with energy supply disruptions tied to the US war with Iran, while electricity needs are climbing quickly as AI expands. The conflict has pushed nations to scramble for oil and to lean more heavily on coal-fired power plants. The United States, historically the largest greenhouse gas emitter, is staying out of international climate cooperation for a second consecutive year. These developments are expected to make it harder for the Turkish presidency to secure a strong agreement at the summit.
“It’s hard to be optimistic,” said John Holdren, a professor of environmental policy at Harvard University.
Turkiye’s plan to electrify the global economy
Turkiye has placed a goal at the centre of its COP31 presidency: electrifying more than a third of the global economy by 2035. At present, roughly one-fifth of the global economy is powered through electricity, so the target would represent a considerable expansion. The presidency is asking governments to endorse a pledge that backs this objective.
Supporters argue that greater electrification could cut greenhouse gas emissions by speeding the move away from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, heating systems, boilers, cookstoves and other equipment. The approach would replace polluting machinery with electric alternatives across many sectors.
Climate advocates, however, have criticised the proposed pledge because it does not require the extra electricity to come from low-carbon sources. That gap has prompted questions about whether electrification alone should count as meaningful progress on climate change, particularly if new power generation continues to depend on fossil fuels.
Dispute over a roadmap beyond fossil fuels
A coalition of countries, including vulnerable South Pacific island nations that face the threat of rising sea levels, is calling for a clearer global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. The issue has been one of the most contentious at international climate negotiations, exposing disagreement over how fast the world should cut its use of oil, gas and coal.
Several oil- and gas-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, maintain that fossil fuels can keep a substantial place in the global energy mix while still fitting with climate goals. They argue this is possible if technologies are used to reduce or capture emissions. The debate is expected to add to the strain on negotiators, who must balance competing energy security priorities against growing pressure to cut emissions faster.
A report by the United Nations Environment Programme, published in October, said the world is already set to overshoot 1.5C of warming above pre-industrial levels, the threshold agreed at the 2015 Paris climate summit. The year 2026 also brought a series of extreme heatwaves across Western Europe. In Nepal, a glacier collapse caused a catastrophic flood that killed more than 1,450 people, and thousands remain missing.
“This year has proven to be one of the years with the highest casualties by the climate-induced disasters,” said Manjeet Dal, an adviser to the Least Developed Country bloc and south Asia director of Climate Analytics.
War, coal and AI reshape the energy debate
The Iran war has highlighted the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, much as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed on Moscow’s energy exports did. Some observers say the disruptions caused by these conflicts have also made the advantages of renewable energy clearer.
The Iran war, now in its ninth month, has badly disrupted Middle East oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That has lifted fuel prices around the globe and pushed governments to hunt for new supplies. US President Donald Trump’s administration has backed policies that maximise oil, gas and coal production to respond to the disruption. South Korea, India, Thailand and other Asian countries, meanwhile, have increased their dependence on coal or taken steps to expand coal-fired generation.
“A lot of people who previously might have been embarrassed to argue for continuing very high use of fossil fuel are now feeling empowered to make that case,” said Holdren of Harvard.
At the same time, renewable energy deployment has grown, helped by surging exports of inexpensive clean technology from China. That trend has encouraged advocates of ambitious climate action. “The war has strengthened the case for accelerating the energy transition. The United States is something of an outlier in this regard,” said Andre Correa do Lago, a Brazilian diplomat who presided over last year’s COP.
AI has added another layer to the debate. Its rapid rollout is pushing up global power demand and contributing to rising greenhouse gas emissions. Its benefits, however, are proving hard to resist, even for climate and environmental activist groups. COP31 host Turkiye will ask governments, businesses and other institutions attending the conference to sign a pledge setting out principles for developing and deploying AI sustainably.
Business groups say they want one thing above all from the summit: clarity. John Denton, secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce, said delivery on climate pledges could not remain a slogan or depend on voluntary initiatives. He called on COP31 to send firm policy signals that give companies the confidence to invest in electrification and the wider energy transition, and to convert adaptation needs into projects that can attract financing.
