President Donald Trump’s all-time low popularity, voter frustration over living costs and a bitter immigration dispute are shaping the November 3 midterm elections. The vote will determine whether Republicans keep control of Congress or whether Democrats gain the power to challenge the administration.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control of each chamber. The outcome is expected to hinge on a limited number of closely contested races, though the national mood is being driven largely by Trump and by voter concerns over affordability and immigration.
Trump’s low approval and push for turnout
Trump has placed himself at the centre of the final stretch of campaigning, with rallies planned in Florida, Iowa, Michigan and Texas. A Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval rating at 31%, its lowest level of his current term. He has nonetheless repeatedly asked voters to act as though he were on the ballot.
That message is aimed at boosting turnout among his base, but it could also energise Democrats and independents who want to push back against his party.
Cost of living tops voters’ concerns
Democrats say Trump has failed to keep his promises to lower costs and end wars. If they win control of either chamber, they have pledged an affordability agenda to ease the cost of living for Americans and to hold the administration to account over alleged corruption.
Voters have consistently ranked living costs as the leading issue this cycle. Half of registered voters in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll said cost of living was the most important factor in how they would vote, and respondents named healthcare, gasoline, food and housing as the main household bills lawmakers should address.
Republicans point to a tax-cut extension as their top legislative achievement, which Medicaid, the government health insurance program for low-income Americans, and other health programmes absorbed through roughly $1 trillion in spending reductions. Last year, Democrats forced a government shutdown after an effort to extend expiring health subsidies, which had benefited 24 million Americans, failed.
Fuel prices have climbed since the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in February. According to AAA, the national average for gasoline is $4.28, up $1.20 from a year ago, while diesel averages $6.32, a rise of $2.70. Grocery prices are up 1.8% over the past year, based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, and Federal Housing Finance Agency figures show home prices rose 2.1%.
Immigration enforcement and the ICE funding fight
Preliminary Department of Homeland Security data showed a 95% drop in migrants apprehended at the southwest border compared with the Biden administration. The agency said there had been no Border Patrol releases for the entire fiscal year, a first.
Still, fatal encounters with federal immigration agents have occurred in Maine, Minnesota and Texas. The deaths of two US citizens in Minnesota pushed many Democrats in competitive primaries further to the left, with some candidates calling for the impeachment of then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and others arguing that Immigration and Customs Enforcement should be abolished.
Congress deadlocked over immigration funding this year, leading Republicans to pass a $70 billion bill on their own to fund ICE and the Border Patrol for the rest of Trump’s presidency. Republicans have answered Democratic criticism by saying Democrats support open borders.
Federal immigration officials also raided the Washington home of Democratic US Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota this month, prompting widespread condemnation from Democrats. A person familiar with the case told Reuters that one potential aim of the investigation could be to strip her of US citizenship and deport her.
Data centres, crypto, abortion and Israel in key races
Artificial intelligence and data centres, cryptocurrency, abortion and Israel could also influence voters in individual contests. In Ohio’s Senate race, Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown has labelled Republican Senator Jon Husted the face of data centres. The crypto super PAC Defend American Jobs has spent more than $46 million to re-elect Husted over Brown, a former US senator who chaired the Banking Committee.
In Maine, Democratic nominee Troy Jackson is counting on voters remembering that Republican Senator Susan Collins helped confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which later overturned the federal right to abortion. It is the first time Collins has appeared on the ballot since the high court made abortion a state issue.
In Michigan, Republican nominee Mike Rogers has indicated he would accept help from a pro-Israel super PAC. That group spent more than $30 million backing Democratic US Representative Haley Stevens in her unsuccessful primary against Abdul El-Sayed, who now faces Rogers in the general election, and has already spent over $280,000 on mailers against El-Sayed.
Earlier this week, Trump endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection.
