Voters in Canada’s western province of Alberta have decisively turned down a proposal for a binding independence referendum, according to media projections released on Tuesday. The outcome is a sharp blow to separatists, whose cause drew interest from supporters of US President Donald Trump.
A public broadcaster projected a clear win for the side favouring national unity. Official results showed more than 76 percent backing unity, with roughly a third of the votes counted at that point.
Federalists lead as Alberta counts its ballots
Canada had spent Monday awaiting the result of the ballot, which followed a divisive campaign that put national unity to the test in the oil-rich province. Prime Minister Mark Carney had argued that the vote was taking place “at the worst possible time,” pointing to the need for stability while Trump pursues a trade war and threatens annexation.
Polls had suggested that fewer than a quarter of Albertans favoured independence. Separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre told AFP on Monday that he remained hopeful. Alberta’s elections authority said all polling stations had closed by 10:10 pm (0410 GMT Tuesday), though counting had been running for several hours, including 1.4 million advance ballots. The province has 3.1 million eligible voters.
At the federalist gathering in Edmonton, a band was playing as supporters waited for what they expected to be a favourable result. Thomas Lukaszuk, who heads Forever Canadian, the group that campaigned across the province for unity, said: “It was amazing to see the enthusiasm and resolve among Canadians.”
Premier Danielle Smith and the secession question
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative, said she had voted against independence. She nonetheless called the referendum to settle a question that has split the province. Smith has pledged to hold a binding referendum if a majority wants to separate, and said the secession question should be treated as closed if federalists win.
Alberta holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and much of the separatist momentum has come from anger over how the oil industry is managed. Smith has blamed former prime minister Justin Trudeau for fuelling the movement, accusing him of trying to crush oil production to advance his pro-climate agenda.
Trump allies and Carney’s Brexit warning
The independence push has also attracted sustained attention from Trump allies. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta a “natural partner” for the United States. Elon Musk, the world’s richest person and a top Trump supporter, posted on X this month that Alberta “should separate.” Separatist leaders have also held meetings at the US State Department and with Republican political operatives.
Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has worked to improve relations between the province and Ottawa since taking office last year. He has partnered with Smith on a new pipeline to export more Alberta bitumen overseas, a project that was considered unworkable under Trudeau. He has also warned that even a nonbinding vote on independence would be a “dangerous bluff,” drawing on his time as Bank of England governor during the Brexit vote. He said the “huge uncertainty” that followed Brexit hurt the British economy and cautioned Alberta about unintended economic consequences.
