Dozens of ships were attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz in October, as Iran and the United States both push to assert authority over the key waterway. At least 12 vessels were attacked in the week ending October 16, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which published its report late on Friday.
The maritime security body included an important caveat. It said it was struggling to establish the true number of attacks because most vessels that were hit have refused to report to it. UKMTO said it was aware of further incidents through other sources but could not verify them due to a lack of information. The same pattern has held for the first half of October, a month that has seen the highest number of ship attacks since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28.
How UKMTO counted the confirmed ship attacks
Of the 12 vessels confirmed as attacked, UKMTO said half continued to their destination or reached port. The remaining outcomes were distributed as follows:
- One vessel sank.
- Two vessels were disabled.
- Three vessels were either damaged or had an unconfirmed outcome.
On Saturday, UKMTO also reported a new type of attack. The master of a tanker said the vessel was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat about 78 nautical miles northeast of Saudi Arabia’s city of Jubail in the Eastern Province. The strike caused damage to the aft port quarter.
Oil flows and prices under pressure from attacks
In recent months, the US has managed to increase energy transits through the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways using a shuttle system coordinated with Arab powers. However, volumes have fluctuated from week to week because of rising Iranian attacks. Figures from Kpler showed oil flows through Hormuz at 11.6 million barrels per day over the seven days to October 13. That was about 68 percent of the pre-war baseline of 17.1 million barrels per day.
Oil markets have reacted to the instability. On Friday, Brent crude touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May, in light of ongoing attacks. The situation has been made worse by attacks from the Iran-aligned Houthis on Saudi energy infrastructure, and by their capture of the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Expectations that the conflict between the US and Iran was escalating have also affected prices. The strait accounted for roughly a fifth of global oil and natural gas flows before the war began.
Competing US and Iranian claims over control of the strait
The US military has presented a markedly different picture. US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper said in a video message late on Friday that, despite Iranian attacks, 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait over the past week. “Let me be clear: The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” he said. He attributed the sharp rise in ship attacks to “desperation” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The US military also said it continues to prevent Iranian exports and imports through its southern ports via an “ironclad” naval blockade. It claimed the blockade has cost Iran $25bn in oil export income and said Washington had recently seized $350m in Iranian cryptocurrency financing. UKMTO’s separate report said total outbound transits over the previous seven days stood at 125 ships, while inbound transits were 129. Most of the transits recorded by the agency were for dry bulk cargo, followed by tanker products and general cargo.
Tehran has not released exact figures on how many vessels have been attacked or how many are passing through the strait. It has, however, said Washington is exaggerating its numbers to project success in its naval campaign.
Naval mine claims and the disputed GFS Pride incident
Two vessels were reportedly hit by naval mines in the strait this week, and the US and Iran have offered contradictory accounts. The IRGC has increasingly reported vessels hitting mines across the waterway, which it says remains unsafe for ships that do not coordinate with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority. That body was set up during the war to manage passage through Hormuz.
The IRGC said on Saturday that a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil caught fire after striking a mine while moving through an “unauthorised” route. Iranian state television shared footage it said showed the tanker on fire. CENTCOM, however, said it had cleared the strait of naval mines and that vessels were being struck by projectiles instead.
The US military also said on Thursday that a civilian container ship, the M/V GFS Pride, had been hit by an IRGC projectile rather than a mine, as Iran had claimed. The vessel sank while being towed to shore.
Diplomacy stalls as midterms and threats loom
The US has not responded to any of the recent vessel attacks, but there are concerns that Washington could escalate the war after the November 3 midterm elections. Diplomacy has not fully stopped, with messages still being relayed between the two sides by regional mediators, including Pakistan and Qatar. However, no breakthrough in talks is expected any time soon.
President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the US military to stay ready to launch larger attacks after the elections. According to US media, those could potentially include the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, nicknamed the “mother of all bombs”.
Tehran has signalled that it intends to continue its attacks. Acting Defence Minister Majid Ibn Reza said on Saturday that Iranian missiles, not US bombs, will determine the future of the war. He was quoted by state media as saying: “Your bombs will explode elsewhere; in your global reputation, the US economy, and even your electoral calculations.”
