Yemen is seeing a major military escalation that has returned the western coast and the area around the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the centre of regional developments. Forces loyal to the internationally recognised Yemeni government, operating under the name Operation Yemen’s Dawn, have advanced toward the strait and are now fighting reinforced Houthi positions. Clashes continue in parts of Dhubab District and around Dhubab Airport.
An analysis published on ‘s opinion pages argues that the central question is whether these military moves can shift the balance of power for good, or whether they will widen the confrontation or open the way to a new negotiating process. The commentary says the outcome is still uncertain.
Why the strait and coastline matter so much
The fighting has concentrated around Bab al-Mandeb because of the strait’s strategic place in global trade and energy flows. The commentary notes that control of the coastline, islands and surrounding highlands gives the parties different capabilities for surveillance, military deployment and pressure on maritime traffic.
An advance along the coast may allow government forces to retake key positions and limit the Houthis’ room to manoeuvre. However, the analysis says this alone does not guarantee the security of the strait or remove threats to navigation. Even if the Houthis lose coastal positions, they could still launch attacks in the Red Sea using missiles, drones, launch platforms, supply networks and the ability to operate from other locations.
The operation is also moving from the coastal strip into higher ground, including the Kahbub Mountains in Lahj governorate and the highlands west and south-west of Taiz governorate. The commentary argues that terrain, defence, movement and supply problems become more severe in these areas.
Government goals, unity and southern divisions
The commentary distinguishes three separate levels of success: retaking coastal positions, consolidating military control over them, and building a lasting capacity to secure the strait and its surroundings. It warns that confusing these levels could lead either to an exaggerated view of the operation’s results or to an underestimation of the enemy’s ability to keep fighting.
Recent statements by Dr Rashad Al-Alimi, president of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, point to a change in objectives, from containing the Houthi threat to restoring state institutions and liberating Sanaa. According to the analysis, this gives the fighting a national dimension beyond limited gains on the ground.
Success, the commentary says, depends on the government forces’ ability to unify command, secure supplies and coordinate various military formations. Keeping divisions within the government in check, particularly over the southern issue, is essential to preserving gains and preventing the confrontation from becoming an internal conflict. This matters in particular because the Southern Giants Brigades, which have played the most effective role in the coastal battles, come from the southern governorates.
Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf response
The commentary says the Houthi escalation is hard to understand apart from the wider Iran war. It describes Iran’s support for the group as well known, while recent media reports have revealed more about its extent. These reports say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has directed Houthi movements along the coast and encouraged escalation against Saudi Arabia, with commitments of further support.
The analysis argues that control of Bab al-Mandeb is strategically important to Iran and its allies, since greater pressure there could give them more leverage in the Iran conflict. For Saudi Arabia, the author links its involvement in Yemen to direct security concerns and a wish to reduce threats to its territory and nearby maritime routes.
Against this background, the commentary says a Saudi response to the deadly airport attacks appears highly likely. Riyadh may be less inclined to stay within familiar exchanges along existing front lines and could instead target sites or capabilities of greater importance in the Houthis’ military structure. The aim, the analysis suggests, may be to impose significant costs without immediately widening the confrontation into a broader regional war.
At the Gulf level, the commentary judges collective military action less likely. Attacks could prompt an emergency GCC meeting, stronger political statements or more defensive coordination, but reviving a joint military campaign against the Houthis would be harder. It says Gulf states no longer share the same degree of strategic alignment over Yemen, and differences, particularly between Saudi and Emirati priorities, continue to limit collective action.
Pakistan and Turkiye have announced support for Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Pact, the analysis notes, although the exact terms of their participation have yet to be defined. The commentary says the escalation may test whether these partnerships stay political and defensive or turn into practical military support, including stronger air defence deployments. US involvement remains possible, but any direct role would likely be limited, with past US action in Yemen focused more on deterrence, maritime security and containing threats than on shifting the battlefield.
Possible paths for Yemen’s conflict
The commentary cautions that an expanding confrontation does not automatically mean all parties want an open war. Some may use escalation to strengthen their deterrence or negotiating position, although the risk of miscalculation remains.
According to the analysis, the near-term course of the war depends on whether government forces can hold the positions they have retaken, secure the area around the strait and the connecting roads, and remove the Houthi threat from the highlands. If these conditions are met, the balance of military and political pressure could shift, though this would not necessarily end the Houthis’ maritime threat.
If the advance stalls at positions that are hard to overcome, and the Houthis keep using missiles and drones for counterattacks, the commentary warns that a protracted confrontation could follow. It describes a war of attrition as potentially devastating for humanitarian and economic conditions not only in Yemen but across the region.
The risk of region-wide war may still push the parties toward an understanding to halt the fighting. Turning military gains into a settlement, however, would require tackling wider political and security questions, including power-sharing, mutual guarantees and the security of maritime routes. The author concludes that the coastal battle could become a gateway to a broader change in Yemen’s crisis rather than another round in a long war.
