Spain’s far-right Vox party is closer to power than at any point in its recent history, according to opinion polls, as the country prepares for snap parliamentary elections on November 29. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists are trailing, and a possible alliance between the conservative People’s Party (PP) and Vox could end his government.
If the two parties form a coalition, it would be the first time the hard right has returned to power in Spain since the death of Francisco Franco in 1975. Parliament needs 176 seats for a majority, and a recent survey by the centre-left newspaper El Pais projected that the PP and Vox together would win 198 seats.
Young voters drawn to Vox as polls tighten
Alberto Munoz, a 24-year-old computer programmer from Barcelona who wears the red and gold wristband of Vox supporters, said his main objection to Sanchez was the government’s willingness to admit more migrants. He is part of a growing group of young Spaniards drawn to the anti-immigration party.
Eight years ago, Vox was a marginal force on the fringes of Spanish politics. Its support is now predicted to double from the last national elections in 2023, when the PP won the most votes but not enough to govern alone. The PP did not enter a coalition with Vox at that time, and Sanchez, of the Socialist Workers’ Party, instead formed a government with the help of the Catalan nationalist party Together for Catalonia.
Since then, the PP has formed four regional governments with Vox, and the two parties share power in about 100 councils. The El Pais survey predicted the Socialists would win 112 seats in November, down from 121 three years ago. A separate survey for RTVE, the state broadcaster, suggested Vox could rise from 33 seats to 65. It indicated that the PP’s support had not grown and that all left-wing parties had lost ground.
Jose Antonio Fuster, national spokesman for Vox, said the party would campaign hard to win. He added that the PP must not repeat what he described as its mistakes in 2023, and must not start dividing up ministries before the election is won.
Housing crisis and corruption scandals shape the campaign
Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the PP leader, is seeking to capitalise on voter anger over corruption scandals that have affected Sanchez. After the prime minister announced the snap vote, Feijoo told reporters that the election was a choice between corruption and decency, and between decline and prosperity. He also pledged to build 200,000 homes a year and cut taxes.
Sanchez called the vote in what observers described as a bold gamble, hoping to rally support and defy the polls. He has been under pressure from a housing crisis that has pushed tens of thousands of people onto the streets in protests across Spain. The eviction of 87-year-old Maria del Carmen Abascal, known as Maricarmen, from a Madrid flat she had lived in for seven decades, angered the public and prompted activists to set up camps in central Madrid and other cities. She died this month, after the protests.
Two government bills designed to protect people in situations like hers were defeated in parliament, which led to large demonstrations. Sanchez then chose to use the anger and call an election. The two measures to protect tenants from eviction were later passed by the acting government. Sanchez told reporters that they protect the most vulnerable and begin to restore order to a housing market he described as deeply dysfunctional, driven by rampant speculation.
Observers said Sanchez hopes the strength of feeling over housing might overshadow other problems. These include corruption scandals involving members of his family, the perceived mishandling of the Ceuta migration crisis, and an amnesty for Catalan separatists who led a failed independence bid in 2017.
Experts question the far right’s break with Franco
Steven Forti, an expert on the far right who lectures in contemporary history at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, said Vox, like other far-right parties in Europe and Latin America, distances itself from the Franco dictatorship. Yet Vox leader Santiago Abascal once told the Spanish parliament that Sanchez’s government was the “worst for the past 80 years”, a remark that implied the Franco era had been better.
Forti described this as dog whistle politics. In his view, the party avoids making an explicit reference to the dictatorship while sending a coded message. He said young people are drawn to Vox by a sense of rebellion against established parties, a sense of nationhood and anti-migrant feeling. He added that if the polls are accurate, Vox would govern with the PP, but what would matter most is which ministries it controls.
Antonio Alonso, a lecturer in international relations at the University CEU San Pablo in Madrid, said right-wing parties were more stable than their divided opponents. He argued that the left is split into many groups that will be hard to mobilise as a single front, while the PP and Vox are more unified.
Even so, analysts note that Sanchez is widely regarded as a skilled political operator, and his gamble may still fall short. The Socialists had trailed in almost every opinion poll for months before he announced the election, with most voters saying they would back the PP and Vox.
