US military personnel are scheduled to leave their final bases in Iraq by Wednesday, marking the end of a two-decade presence. This withdrawal is hailed as a significant triumph by Iran and its allied factions, who have gained substantial influence in Iraq, a country where 4,500 American soldiers lost their lives during prolonged conflict.
Iraqi security experts warn that the pullout, agreed upon in 2024 under President Joe Biden and executed during Donald Trump’s administration amid ongoing tensions with Iran, could grant Tehran and its powerful proxies greater freedom to operate. Additionally, it may enable other adversaries of the US, including the Islamic State, to regain strength.
Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specializing in Iran-aligned armed groups, noted that Iran stands to gain strategically from the coalition’s exit, as it removes a military presence that had long served as a counterbalance to Tehran’s influence in Iraq. He further predicted that pro-Iranian militias would not only celebrate the withdrawal as a victory but also attempt to leverage this momentum to expand their control over Iraq’s security and political spheres.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iran-backed armed groups—described the US departure as a historic win for Iraqi Islamic resistance factions and a severe setback for American ambitions. He declared that on September 30, Iraqis would commemorate the end of a dark chapter marked by foreign occupation, emphasizing that true sovereignty is secured by the resistance and the will of the Iraqi people, not foreign forces.
Despite widespread public support for the US exit, some Iraqis express concern that the withdrawal is premature. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a tribal leader from Fallujah, a former hub of anti-American resistance, stated that Iraq is not yet fully prepared to manage its own security. While all Iraqis desire full sovereignty, he warned that the coalition’s departure risks creating a security vacuum that many fear.
US forces initially invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein, subsequently occupying the country, installing a pro-American government, and engaging in a lengthy counterinsurgency before withdrawing in 2011. They returned in 2014 to assist Iraqi forces in defeating Islamic State militants, a campaign that lasted until 2017. The number of American casualties in Iraq was roughly double those in the Afghanistan conflict, which ended with a rapid US withdrawal in 2021.
In recent years, Iraq has maintained unique political and military ties with both the US and Iran, with the latter using Iraqi territory as a proxy battleground. The US killed top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike at Baghdad Airport, prompting retaliatory attacks by Iran-backed militias on US bases, sometimes met with US counterstrikes. During this year’s conflict with Iran, seven of the 18 US service members killed were in Iraq, including a sergeant who died in July during a drone detonation near Erbil.
In a significant development, Iran views the US withdrawal as a victory for its regional “axis of resistance,” comprising allied armed groups. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, stated that lasting security in Iraq will be achieved once American troops leave the country and the broader region. He affirmed Iran’s support for the withdrawal, highlighting ongoing actions by resistance groups targeting US forces.
Washington has accused Iran-backed militias in Iraq of participating in broader Middle Eastern conflicts by launching attacks on neighboring countries under Tehran’s direction, including a recent strike on a major Saudi oil pipeline. Meanwhile, the Iraqi government claims it is working to limit these groups’ influence.
Some Iraqi security officials from both the federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region warn that the US exit could revive Islamic State militants. Despite losing their self-declared caliphate nearly a decade ago, IS maintains sleeper cells. At their peak, they controlled a third of Iraq and committed thousands of killings, including filmed executions inside a former US base.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani observed increased activity by IS sleeper cells following public announcements of the coalition’s withdrawal, suggesting a boost in the militants’ morale. Iraqi security forces reported that a suspected IS cell was preparing suicide attacks timed with the US pullout, underscoring concerns about the group’s ongoing capability to exploit security gaps despite military defeats.
Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, emphasized that Islamic State aims to demonstrate its continued strength and ability to conduct deadly attacks. The withdrawal of US forces thus presents complex challenges for Iraq’s security landscape, with Iran’s influence expanding and militant threats persisting.
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