Keir Starmer is confronting a significant political challenge this Thursday as voters in the Greater Manchester constituencies of Gorton and Denton head to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament. This by-election has drawn intense attention because it is shaping up to be a tightly contested race, with the Labour Party, led by Starmer, facing stiff competition from the populist Reform UK party and the left-wing Green Party. The outcome is far from certain, with recent polls indicating a near three-way split in voter support, making this election a critical test of Starmer’s leadership and Labour’s standing in a region traditionally considered a party stronghold.
The by-election comes at a time when Starmer’s leadership has been under increased scrutiny following a series of controversial decisions and policy reversals. One of the most contentious moves was the appointment of Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to Washington, a decision that has sparked considerable debate within political circles and the media. Mandelson’s close associations with the late Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender, have resurfaced and drawn unwanted attention, although Mandelson himself has denied any wrongdoing. This appointment, combined with other perceived missteps, has led some members within Labour to question Starmer’s judgment and call for his resignation.
In an effort to regain control of the narrative and galvanize support, Starmer made an unexpected visit to the area on Monday, accompanied by his campaign team. During this visit, he emphasized that the by-election essentially boils down to a choice between Labour and Reform UK, the latter being led by Nigel Farage, a prominent figure in the Brexit movement. Starmer’s team has consistently warned that casting a vote for the Greens could inadvertently benefit Reform UK by splitting the left-leaning vote. The Greens have campaigned vigorously on progressive platforms, including addressing the rising cost of living and expressing solidarity with Gaza, which has resonated with some voters but also raised concerns among Labour strategists about vote dilution.
Starmer has framed the election as a clear-cut decision for voters. In a statement ahead of the vote, he declared that the choice “could not be more stark,” contrasting Labour’s commitment to reducing living costs and fostering unity against Reform UK’s agenda, which he described as divisive and harmful to community cohesion. This rhetoric underscores the broader political stakes, as Labour seeks to present itself as the party of progress and stability in contrast to the populist and often polarizing messages from its rivals.
It is important to note that Labour secured this seat comfortably during the 2024 general election landslide, but the incumbent MP recently announced their resignation, triggering the by-election. The current contest is therefore not only a test of party loyalty but also a referendum on Starmer’s leadership amid internal party tensions. The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as Labour’s candidate in this election has also stirred controversy. Instead, Labour selected Angeliki Stogia, a local councillor, to represent the party. She faces off against Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin, an academic and author, and Hannah Spencer, another local councillor representing the Greens. The campaign has been marked by accusations of unfair tactics and intense rivalry, reflecting the high stakes involved.
Should Labour lose this by-election, especially to the Greens, it would represent a significant setback for Starmer, given the area’s longstanding loyalty to the party. However, many within Labour remain optimistic that this defeat would not be fatal to Starmer’s leadership. Instead, they are looking ahead to the more consequential local elections scheduled for May, which will see contests across several English councils as well as the Welsh and Scottish assemblies. These upcoming elections are widely regarded as the true litmus test for Starmer’s ability to unify his party and maintain public support in the face of growing political challenges.
