United States President Donald Trump has said on Truth Social that he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. He had earlier told a Republican convention in September that the conflict “is going to end immediately after the elections,” and the US military has been moving more forces into the region in recent weeks.
The pledge comes as Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level since the war began. An Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran has started using different offensive tactics against vessels it considers to be breaching its restrictions. With control of the strait at the centre of the conflict, asked military analysts what options Trump still has and what each would cost.
Hormuz shipping attacks and the oil market
The US and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28, and Iran responded with counterattacks against US military assets and other infrastructure in Gulf countries and Jordan in the months that followed. Tehran also closed the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carried at least 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas before the war. Global energy markets were thrown into turmoil.
Crude oil, the global benchmark, climbed from about $72 a barrel on the day before the war to a high of nearly $120 earlier this year. It was trading at about $104 on Thursday. A June ceasefire collapsed over control of the strait, and Washington has maintained a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports. Iran has kept attacking ships that try to pass through, while indirect talks mediated through Pakistan and Qatar continue alongside proposals from both sides. Trump rejected Iran’s latest offer to reopen the strait last month.
Before the war, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, carrying an average of 17.1 million barrels of oil. That traffic collapsed when the strait was closed in March. According to the maritime tracking firm Kpler, Gulf oil flows through Hormuz, excluding Iran’s, had recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September with the help of US Navy escorts. That progress has since been reversed. Kpler said only 2.9 million barrels passed through the waterway on October 11, the lowest figure this month.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre recorded 15 attacks on ships between October 6 and 14. Patrick Bury, a senior associate professor at the University of Bath and a former NATO research analyst, said Iran appears well prepared and pointed to what he called “the asymmetry of costs.” He added that Iran’s geography gives it an easier starting point.
Costs of renewed strikes and depleted missile stocks
Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University and a former senior Royal Air Force officer, told that the US has “enormous military capability that Iran can’t match,” yet has not achieved the outcomes Washington wants. Analysts quoted by said the US has at least three aircraft carrier strike groups in or heading to the Gulf, and about 50,000 soldiers at bases across the Middle East.
Bury said the most likely course is for Washington to keep the blockade and naval escorts as they are. Trump has said it may be “possible” to step up bombing after the elections but has not provided details. If escalation does come, Bury expects further strikes in fairly limited packets against targets on Iran’s coast and further inland. Ashraf argued that a new campaign could achieve considerably less than the earlier strikes, because Iran has adapted and now has fewer weapons that it can hide more effectively.
The financial and military costs would also be heavy for the US. Ashraf said each relatively cheap Iranian drone or missile can force Washington to fire an interceptor costing a million dollars or more, and warned that the US is running short of missiles for its own defence. The US has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran during the war. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that restoring the pre-war inventory could take until the end of 2030.
Bury put the timeline for regaining pre-war levels across key munitions at “three to four years.” Tehran, for its part, has promised a harder response. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said last month that the era of “proportionate responses” was over. Ashraf also warned that renewed attacks could cost Washington access to some Gulf bases. Iran’s recent retaliation has hit Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, while other Gulf states, which Ashraf said may have reached an understanding with Tehran, have been spared.
Kharg Island and the limits of a ground operation
One possible target is Kharg Island, located 26km (16 miles) off Iran’s coast, which handles about 90 percent of Iran’s exports. Joseph Votel, a former US Central Command commander, has said 800 to 1,000 soldiers could seize it, but that they would be highly exposed to fire from the mainland, according to Reuters.
Ashraf said US forces could carry out a limited invasion, probably preceded by electronic warfare to blind Iranian defences. He argued that Iran would then strike the island itself, since it would need little targeting information once American forces were on it. He also said public appetite for casualties is low in a war that is already very unpopular, and warned that Iran could hit oil infrastructure across the Gulf in response. He described seizing the island as the most irrational of an already irrational set of choices.
Trump has largely ruled out a ground offensive. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in March that ground troops would not be needed to reach the administration’s goals. Bury said he did not think the US would attempt it, and added that he doubted it could be done. According to the Pew Research Center, about 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war, and the midterms are only weeks away.
Bury said the larger question is whether the US can rebuild its military strength quickly enough. The task would outlast Trump’s term, he said, because “the next president would need to do the same thing anyway.” Ashraf warned that the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of instability across the region. On Sunday, Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran had been striking vessels in the US-backed shuttle through the Strait of Hormuz every night for weeks. “You are smuggling,” he said, “but the strait is under Iran’s control.”
