Israel has expanded its military control over the Gaza Strip, a move described as a violation of the United States-brokered ceasefire. The expansion is pushing Palestinians into an ever-smaller share of the territory, which has been devastated by the war. Nearly two-thirds of Gaza is now either under Israeli military control or subject to access restrictions.
The so-called Yellow Line was set out under US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war. It marked the area to which Israeli forces first withdrew, and they were expected to pull back further in stages. Instead, they have taken more territory.
How the Yellow Line has moved deeper into Gaza
On Sunday, Israeli forces moved yellow concrete blocks dozens of metres west in Shujayea, a neighbourhood in southeastern Gaza City. Palestinian families living there were forced to flee, and more of the neighbourhood came under Israeli military control. Ibrahim al-Khalili, a correspondent reporting from Gaza City, said: “It’s not simply about where the ‘Yellow Line’ is today but where it can move next.”
Since the ceasefire, Israeli forces have repeatedly moved the blocks marking the line farther west, sometimes overnight. Satellite imagery has also documented continued demolitions in areas held by Israeli forces. The research group Forensic Architecture estimated that Israel controlled 58 percent of Gaza by December.
In March, the Israeli military sent aid agencies maps of a new “orange line”. This is a restricted zone beyond the Yellow Line, where humanitarian movements must be coordinated with the army. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), restrictions now cover 65 percent of Gaza. Israel itself said it controls about 70 percent of the territory, a UN official told the Security Council in June.
A shrinking Strip and a rising population density
More than 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.1 million people have been forcibly displaced by the war, which began on October 7, 2023, after Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel. Many families have been displaced repeatedly over the past three years, and the line’s movement has left them with fewer places to go.
Before the war, Gaza covered about 365 square kilometres, roughly 41 kilometres long and between 6 and 12 kilometres wide. Its population was already among the densest in the world, at about 6,000 people per square kilometre, similar to Nairobi or London. Each person had, on average, about 160 square metres of land. Even then, Israel enforced a buffer zone along the fence, and Palestinians who approached it risked being shot. In 2010, OCHA estimated that this restricted area covered 17 percent of Gaza’s land and 35 percent of its farmland. Gaza has also been under an Israeli land, air and sea blockade since 2007.
The first phase of the ceasefire required Israeli forces to withdraw to the Yellow Line within 24 hours. A 72-hour period then began for the handover of Israeli captives held in Gaza. The original line left Israel in control of 53 percent of the Strip, mostly farmland and border areas in the east. It confined Palestinians to the remaining 47 percent, about 172 square kilometres.
By October 2025, two years of war had killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, and tens of thousands more had left the territory. Squeezed into less than half of Gaza, the population density roughly doubled to about 12,000 people per square kilometre, a level comparable to New York City. Each person was left with about 82 square metres.
Now, according to the figures cited, about 2.1 million people live in roughly 35 percent of the Strip, or about 128 square kilometres. The density has nearly tripled from pre-war levels to about 16,000 people per square kilometre, close to central Tokyo. Each person has about 61 square metres of land for everything, including shelter, roads, schools, hospitals and farmland.
Damaged infrastructure and risks ahead of the rainy season
Unlike Tokyo, Gaza has little space left to house its people. The UN Satellite Centre, UNOSAT, found that 82 percent of structures in the Strip are damaged or destroyed. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said only 3 percent of Gaza’s cropland is both undamaged and accessible.
OCHA said the remaining 35 percent of Gaza is “already overcrowded”. It said access restrictions are a key obstacle as aid groups try to relocate families before the rainy season. According to the UN, more than 950,000 people live in displacement sites at risk of flooding, most of them in tents and makeshift shelters.
Approaching the Yellow Line can also be deadly. Israel treats areas beyond it as a free-fire zone, and Palestinians who have come near it have been shot. Nearly 1,500 people have been killed across Gaza since the ceasefire was announced.
