Shrapnel from a ballistic missile intercepted over Saudi Arabia’s Asir region caused injury to one individual, the Saudi Civil Defence confirmed on Saturday. The missile was launched by Yemen’s Houthi movement and intercepted in the Ahad Rafidah governorate on Friday. This incident coincides with Saudi Arabia’s contemplation of a new military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi forces in neighboring Yemen.
In a significant development, regional and Western officials have revealed preparations for a potential Saudi-led offensive intended to reverse recent territorial advances made by the Houthis and secure the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Six insiders familiar with the plans indicated that the operation might commence within the upcoming weeks, with Yemeni forces under Riyadh’s supervision leading ground assaults supported by Saudi air strikes.
Saudi Arabia is currently evaluating two strategies. One involves a focused offensive targeting areas surrounding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime corridor linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The alternative plan envisions a broader campaign with coordinated attacks across multiple fronts, including the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf. The primary goal is to roll back the Houthis’ recent coastal gains and their reported control over positions near the strait.
The United States is already providing intelligence support for Saudi operations in Yemen, while several regional and European nations have contributed mainly defensive military aid. However, direct combat involvement by Saudi allies is not anticipated. The proposed offensive represents a further escalation in Yemen’s conflict, which began in 2015 when Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition to support the internationally recognized government after the Houthis captured the capital, Sanaa.
Although a truce in 2022 had largely contained hostilities, tensions have resurged this year following Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure amid the broader Iran-related conflict. This planned operation, not previously disclosed, could mobilize over 100,000 Yemeni troops depending on its scale. Saudi, Yemeni, Houthi, and US military spokespeople have yet to comment on the reported plans.
Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit from the Red Sea and a crucial shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia, gaining increased importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed due to the Iran conflict. Riyadh has concluded that peace negotiations with the Houthis are untenable while the militants control this strategic passage, which grants them significant global leverage.
The timing of the offensive remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November. Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, anticipates the operation to be limited in scope compared to the 2015 campaign, aiming primarily to regain control of coastal areas and restore normal maritime traffic.
The Houthis have emerged as Iran’s most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel’s weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon over recent years. A Saudi-led offensive against them would mark a new flashpoint amid regional conflicts intensified by the Hamas-led attacks on Israel in October 2023 and the ensuing US-Israeli confrontation with Iran.
Washington, Saudi Arabia’s key ally, is supplying military advisers and intelligence, including targeting data, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen. However, US President Donald Trump reportedly declined requests from Saudi leadership for direct military involvement such as air strikes. Meanwhile, Turkey and Pakistan, which recently signed a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, have provided military equipment now deployed in Yemen.
Last month, Pakistan delivered four cargo planes loaded with air defense systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone technology to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government. Pakistani military advisers are also present on the ground alongside Saudi counterparts to assist Yemeni forces. Additionally, Turkish drones, acquired by Saudi Arabia before the current conflict, are operational over Yemen.
Saudi concerns about protecting oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi missile and drone attacks have led Riyadh to seek defensive system assistance from various allies. Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to secure land borders and assist with missile and drone interception, with deployments beginning last year and continuing after recent escalations. However, Islamabad has not decided to send combat troops into Yemen.
France has announced plans to send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu. Any ground offensive inside Yemen will depend on a fragmented coalition of Yemeni factions previously armed and trained by Saudi Arabia and the UAE during earlier stages of the civil war.
Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha highlighted that many anti-Houthi forces remain disorganized and unprepared for sustained operations against the disciplined Houthi military, which is currently applying pressure across multiple fronts. The coalition was further weakened last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE attempted territorial gains and secession, only to be defeated by Saudi-backed forces.
Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi emphasized that the success of any offensive will largely hinge on the performance of local ground forces. Although the immediate focus has been on defending existing positions, an offensive campaign appears imminent.
