A proposed agreement between Iran and Oman could grant Tehran authority to monitor vessels entering the Gulf through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian and regional officials. This development represents a significant concession to Iran, despite ongoing efforts to address its demands.
Contrary to claims by US President Donald Trump that a deal to reopen the waterway was imminent, several critical issues remain unresolved. One regional official noted that some form of Iranian control over the strait has already been conceded, while another emphasized that the exact nature of this “control” is still under negotiation. Gulf countries insist on supervising ship inspections and maintaining voluntary fee payments.
The senior Iranian official revealed that the draft agreement envisions Iran controlling ships entering the Gulf through the strait, with disputes centering on Iran’s role regarding vessels exiting the Gulf. Washington has yet to respond to these disclosures.
US authorities have consistently rejected any arrangement granting Iran control over access to this vital energy trade route. However, Trump and his administration have recently suggested that a resolution to the conflict, which began with the US-led war in February and faces widespread domestic opposition, could be near.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose slightly following an attack by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen on a Saudi-flagged tanker in the Red Sea, marking the latest disruption to Middle Eastern shipping. Despite this, global crude prices remain near their lowest since early July after a sharp decline triggered by Trump’s cancellation of planned strikes on Iran amid ongoing negotiations.
Although direct talks between Tehran and Washington have not occurred, Iran has been negotiating with Oman, which controls the opposite shore of the strait. Iran recently rejected an Omani proposal, deeming it insufficient in granting Iran influence.
Trump told Fox News that negotiations were “moving along nicely” following an extensive all-day session. He expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon, warning that any Iranian withdrawal from talks would provoke a strong response.
Earlier, Trump cited these negotiations as the reason for halting plans for “massive attacks” on Iran, a pattern he has repeated throughout the conflict. However, the senior Iranian official cautioned against expecting a swift agreement, noting that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was currently on holiday and talks were ongoing.
Another Iranian source highlighted the fragility of the process, warning that a single tweet from Trump could derail the entire deal. Should Iran gain any control over access to the strait, it would signify a major shift in regional power dynamics favoring Tehran, as the strait was previously open to all ships without fees.
Trump, who initially predicted an “unconditional surrender” from Iran under his leadership, faces mounting pressure to end a war that US public opinion opposes by a two-to-one margin. The senior Iranian official indicated that Iran seeks fees between 5 and 7 percent of cargo value from ships passing through the strait, while Oman proposes around 3 percent, and Washington demands no fees.
Making fees voluntary could offer a compromise, but the implied threat of Iranian attacks might compel shippers to pay to avoid risks. Despite months of US military efforts, including a two-week strike campaign in July, Iran’s control over the strait remains intact. US commanders reported dwindling munitions supplies, with nearly all long-range precision missiles reportedly expended.
Periodic US escalations have been met with stronger Iranian and proxy responses, including from the Houthi fighters controlling much of Yemen and a second major regional shipping chokepoint at the Red Sea’s entrance. On Wednesday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for another attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, enforcing what they describe as a blockade of Saudi oil shipments bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, a projectile sank an Indian-flagged vessel near Yemen, with all 14 crew members rescued. Yemen’s southern government, a rival to the Houthis, blamed the attack on the Houthi forces.
