The number of ships reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has reached a record high, according to an analysis of data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency. Twelve vessels reported being attacked between 5 and 11 October, the largest weekly total of strikes the agency has recorded since the US-Israeli war with Iran began. In the week before, 10 ships reported attacks.
The rise in strikes has coincided with a slowdown in the recovery of oil shipments through the strait, which had picked up last month, according to industry data. Shipping analysts link the trend to a shift in how vessels are moving through the waterway and to Iran’s growing willingness to target ships.
Weekly strike count reaches a new peak
The UKMTO recorded six vessels struck last Sunday, making it the busiest single day of the period. So far this week, four further attacks have been reported. The timeline used in the analysis was built from the first date cited in each incident report, which makes it approximate, since some reports give the date of the attack and others the date it was reported.
Experts say Tehran has been attacking ships in an effort to exert greater control over the waterway. Over the same period, the US military has increased the number of tankers it escorts through the southern part of the strait, a move seen as a way of avoiding Iranian strikes. Experts also say Iran is carrying out more attacks on vessels further from the strait.
The US military’s Central Command, which oversees operations across the Middle East, said on social media that commercial traffic was still moving through the strait, with coordinated protection from US forces and regional partners, despite the attacks.
Petro Dolphin and GFS Pride among recent incidents
Verified footage captured the aftermath of one of Sunday’s attacks, showing the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin on fire. The images were filmed by crew members on a smaller boat nearby. The vessel was hit by a drone near the Sohar Anchorage in Oman, more than 250km (150 miles) from the strait, according to the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard.
The Forward Seamen’s Union of India said 11 Indian seafarers had been rescued from the tanker, but two were still missing. Separately, the container ship GFS Pride sank after being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday. All 21 crew members were safely evacuated.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) published footage it said showed the same ship sinking. The force claimed the vessel was carrying “2,500 containers of contraband” and had taken an “unauthorised route”.
Oil exports dip as escorts and shuttle routes strain shipping
Trade intelligence firm Kpler estimates that about 12.6 million barrels per day passed through the strait on 13 October. That is down from 15 million at the end of September and well below a pre-war baseline of about 17 million barrels per day. The slowdown has come even as more vessels have been assisted through the passage.
US Navy data indicates that in the first 10 days of October, the number of vessels given help to navigate the strait rose by 85% compared with the same period in August. Much of the oil leaving Gulf Arab states has recently been moved through a “shuttle” system. In this arrangement, a fleet of tankers loads up, sails through the strait, and transfers its cargo to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
These shuttle ships follow a route close to Oman’s coastline. Iran has described this route as “unauthorised” and has insisted that vessels use an alternative course nearer its own shore. Assisted transits were a key factor in pushing Middle East oil flows back towards pre-war levels in September. Iranian exports, by contrast, have stalled completely because of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, said Iran had “evolved its strategy” in response to its weakening grip on the strait. He said attacks were occurring “near daily or multiple attacks every single day”. “The aim here is to stop the ships going through and to deter others,” he added.
The IRGC navy has said its strikes would not be “limited to the Strait of Hormuz”, and it later announced a “new deployment formation” across the region, according to state media. Kelly told the analysts that Iran was widening its attacks to ships near the coast of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman.
Vanguard reported that a tanker was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar on Thursday 8 October. The vessel was more than 500km (310 miles) from the strait, and multiple casualties were reported. Vanguard also said another tanker was attacked close to the UAE town of Al-Jazirah al-Hamra on Friday 9 October. Verified footage from that period shows crew members running across a deck and putting on lifejackets as a large cloud of black smoke rose above the ship.
