Four rival Israeli political movements have agreed to work together in an effort to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, ahead of elections on October 27.
The factions are the Yashar party, the Democrats, the Yisrael Beytenu party and the Together alliance. They span different parts of Israel’s political spectrum but say they are united in the goal of “preserve and strengthen Israel as a Jewish and democratic state”. Recent polling showed the opposition in a close battle with a pro-Netanyahu coalition, though neither side appeared on track to win a parliamentary majority.
Opposition leaders sign pledge to cooperate
Leaders of the four Jewish-led opposition movements met on September 26 and signed a declaration. They promised not to attack one another during the campaign and to work together to form a government after the vote.
The meeting included Yair Lapid, who leads the official opposition in the Knesset, along with Gadi Eisenkot of Yashar, Naftali Bennett of the Together alliance, which Lapid co-founded, Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan of the Democrats. The declaration does not name an official leader, although Eisenkot is seen as the opposition’s most likely candidate for prime minister. In a joint statement, the figures described defeating the current government as their “shared highest objective”.
Polls point to a close race without a clear majority
A recent poll by Israel’s Channel 12 projected the following seat totals in the 120-seat Knesset:
- Yashar: 23 seats, the most of any party
- Likud, led by Netanyahu: 21 seats
- Together alliance: 13 seats
- Yisrael Beiteinu: 9 seats
- Democrats: 9 seats
Combined, the opposition would hold 54 seats, seven short of a majority. Netanyahu’s alliance, which includes several ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties, was projected to win 49. Arab-led parties, representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 percent of the population, were projected to win 13 seats, but most opposition leaders have ruled out joining forces with them.
Roi Zur, an assistant professor at the University of Essex, said the anti-Netanyahu bloc could win if turnout favoured it. He noted that several parties that do not “strictly oppose” the prime minister could fall below the 3.25 percent threshold for entering the Knesset, which would shift the balance. “If these parties waste enough right-wing votes, the opposition might translate their support into power,” Zur said. “But this might not be enough.”
Opposition leaders’ hardline stances on Gaza and the West Bank
Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief, has called the idea of a Palestinian state “delusional” and supports “strengthening” Israeli settlements. He opposes full annexation of the West Bank and has said he would dismantle smaller outposts not approved by the government. He also opposes the current government’s E1 settlement plan, which would in effect cut the West Bank in two. On Gaza, he backs a US-backed peace plan, but only from a position of “strength” and after “Hamas’s total disarmament”.
Bennett, a former Likud member who served in several Netanyahu-led governments, has described himself as “more right-wing” than the prime minister. He has backed draconian policies in Gaza, including once calling for a “shoot-to-kill” policy against Palestinians trying to cross into Israel. He opposes a Palestinian state, supports settlement expansion and wants Israeli forces to remain in Gaza until Hamas is disarmed. He has proposed that Egypt, rather than Turkey or Qatar, play a future security role there.
Lieberman’s party also backs settlement expansion, including the E1 plan, and supports annexing Area C of the West Bank, which makes up 60 percent of the territory and is already under full Israeli control. Golan’s Democrats are the only party in the group to back a form of two-state solution, which they describe as “responsible separation”. Palestinian lawyer and analyst Diana Buttu said each opposition leader “has supported Israel’s genocide in Gaza”, while backing settlements or rejecting full “equality for Palestinians”.
Israeli attacks across Gaza since the start of a “ceasefire” in October last year have killed nearly 1,500 Palestinians, according to the enclave’s health officials. They say the overall death toll since October 2023 has passed 74,000.
Analysts doubt a shift in Israeli policy toward Palestinians
Samer Jaber, a doctoral researcher specialising in political economy at Royal Holloway, University of London, said Palestinians should not expect a fundamental change in Israeli policy even if Netanyahu’s bloc loses power. “The major political blocs share core positions on the Palestinian question, including support for the existing settlement structure,” he said, adding that the state institutions that shape policy would remain unchanged.
Anders Persson, a political scientist who specialises in the Israel-Palestine conflict, said an anti-Netanyahu government would likely be a disparate coalition with a thin majority, making substantial concessions such as a complete withdrawal from Gaza difficult. Dov Waxman, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, said a new government could suspend the E1 project, crack down on extremist settler violence and allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Public opinion also reflects hardening views. A September Pew Research Center poll found that only 17 percent of Israeli respondents believed peaceful coexistence alongside an independent Palestinian state was possible. An August survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 38 percent of Jewish Israeli participants favoured annexing the entire West Bank.
Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst for Israel and Palestine at the International Crisis Group, said any “shades of difference” would matter to Palestinians who are currently “suffering nearly uninhibited brutality”. “We’re at a point of mitigation,” he said. “It is about trying to lessen the harms. Palestinians are not in a position to expect any kind of radical shift, but every life saved, every piece of land saved matters a lot for people on the ground.”
