The Indiana Fever are heading into the WNBA offseason with one major question hanging over the franchise: will unrestricted free agent Kelsey Mitchell return to Indiana? An analysis of the team’s recent numbers argues that Caitlin Clark may be able to cope with a Mitchell departure and even thrive without her.
Replacing a scorer of Mitchell’s standing would be difficult, the analysis acknowledges. Still, it says Clark has developed from a player who creates a high volume of shots into a primary scoring weapon. Clark played in 40 games after an abbreviated sophomore season and averaged 22.3 points per game, according to the analysis. Her playmaking also remained strong, with more than eight assists per game to drive the Fever’s offence.
What the Aces playoff series and lineup data show
The debate grew louder during Indiana’s playoff series with the Las Vegas Aces. Mitchell and Clark both averaged 20.3 points per game in the playoffs, but Clark was the more efficient scorer, shooting 39.6% from the floor against Mitchell’s 32.7%.
The analysis also points to lineup data recorded by PBP Stats:
- Clark and Mitchell together: Indiana posted an offensive rating of about 106.74 in roughly 87 minutes on the floor together.
- Clark without Mitchell: In nearly 17 minutes with Clark on the floor in place of Mitchell, the offensive rating rose to 129.41, and the team became stronger defensively on the perimeter.
- Mitchell on the floor with Clark sitting: The offensive rating fell to 93.55 in the stretch where Mitchell played in that role.
What a Mitchell exit could mean for Clark
The analysis acknowledges that replacing Mitchell’s explosive shot-making would require a team effort or savvy roster moves. However, it argues that losing Mitchell would free Clark to take on a bigger share of the offence. It would also give her greater control over the pace of possessions and more freedom in running the offence.
If those figures are any guide, the Fever could lose a key backcourt teammate without it being a loss overall. According to the analysis, that departure could be the push needed to unlock an even better Caitlin Clark.
