A new report from the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health sets out the main interconnected risks humanity could face through 2100. The commission identified 17 major threats. Two of them, the harmful use of artificial intelligence and a global nuclear famine, could lead to human extinction before the century ends.
The commission also listed 15 other major catastrophic risks, including climate change, antimicrobial resistance and severe air pollution. Each could cause more than one billion cumulative disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of health loss by 2100, a measure of the impact of illness, disability and early death.
Lifestyle and social factors drive preventable health loss
The report says modern lifestyle habits are the biggest cause of preventable health loss worldwide. Obesity, poor diet and low physical activity were the top health threats in 154 of the 204 countries studied, putting 23.1 billion healthy life-years at risk.
Low education levels and income inequality were ranked as the second and third biggest causes of health loss globally.
Longer lifespans without matching gains in healthy years
Using advanced forecasting tools, the study found that people are expected to live longer, but years in good health will not rise as quickly. As a result, more people will spend their extra years living with chronic diseases and long-term disabilities.
Researchers warned that short election cycles push political leaders to focus on the near term, so global health planning often becomes reactive. Societies tend to panic during crises, demand quick fixes and then drop long-term planning once the crisis passes.
Three proposed fixes and an annual threat-tracking body
To break this pattern, the commission proposes three main solutions. Governments should create dedicated teams focused solely on long-term threats, and public and private sectors should form strong partnerships to fund tools such as affordable obesity treatments and carbon removal from the air.
The report also recommends an independent group that would track global health threats every year and share its key findings directly with national security leaders.
