The United States and Iran engaged in their first shuttle diplomacy in several months on Wednesday, sparking cautious optimism about potential progress toward resolving the ongoing Middle East conflict. These indirect discussions took place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, marking the first contact since a temporary ceasefire agreement collapsed in July.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi communicated with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner through mediators, with no direct face-to-face meeting reported. Araqchi also met with Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, a key mediator in previous negotiations. Tehran conveyed its conditions for talks, including an end to hostilities on all fronts and a cessation of US “acts of aggression,” as stated by Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei.
US President Donald Trump described the meeting as “very productive” and expressed optimism about momentum toward a deal, though no concrete changes in positions were announced. Earlier, Trump had addressed the UN General Assembly, stating he faced a choice between making a deal with Iran or “annihilating” the country. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian was scheduled to speak at the assembly later that day.
The diplomatic engagement helped stabilize oil prices near a two-week low, with Brent crude hovering just below $100 per barrel. This came after recent escalations, including a major offensive by Houthi fighters in Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia. The conflict, initiated by Trump in February alongside Israel under “Operation Epic Fury,” has lasted nearly seven months, causing thousands of deaths, disrupting global energy supplies, and spreading to Lebanon and Yemen.
Trump reiterated previous claims that the war might conclude around the November US midterm elections, though he provided no explanation for this timing. Since the breakdown of diplomacy in July, both sides have exchanged fire regularly. However, Trump has refrained from resuming extensive strikes, following military advice regarding limited munitions.
An interim agreement signed in June by Trump and Pezeshkian aimed to lift financial sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets in exchange for negotiations on nuclear program limitations. This deal quickly unraveled over disputes concerning shipping regulations in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict. Iran seeks greater control over the strait and to impose fees on passing vessels, a demand Washington rejects.
Despite frequent attacks on tankers, maritime traffic through the strait has gradually increased. Oil producers have paid significant fees to shipping companies to navigate the route covertly, including turning off transponders and transferring cargo beyond the strait. Exports from the United Arab Emirates have returned to pre-war levels, and Saudi Arabia has sold 60 million barrels of Gulf oil for delivery beyond the strait off Oman’s coast, a notable rise from August figures.
Nonetheless, disruptions continue to strain global energy markets, with an estimated one-third of Gulf oil absent from worldwide supplies. Shortages of refined products like diesel have fueled inflation, driven up interest rates, and posed challenges for Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the elections. The risk of further supply interruptions has grown following the recent advance of Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital alternative export route at the Red Sea’s southern entrance.
Meanwhile, the US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, intensifying Iran’s economic difficulties. Iranian officials maintain their willingness to endure the blockade to achieve their objectives and insist they will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade is lifted.
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