Over the recent weekend, only about a dozen commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant drop from the 35 vessels recorded the previous weekend, reflecting ongoing tensions in the Gulf linked to the standoff between the United States and Iran. This strategic waterway, which once handled a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the conflict, now sees markedly reduced visible traffic.
Despite the decline in trackable vessels, Middle Eastern oil producers continue to export crude and other products using tankers that often sail with their transponders switched off to avoid detection. Among the vessels that could be monitored, four ships—two tankers carrying refined oil products and two empty carriers for bulk goods and gas—exited the strait on Sunday. Meanwhile, two small oil tankers entered the Gulf, provisional data from analytics firm Kpler indicated.
On the previous day, Saturday, five vessels departed the Gulf transporting agricultural products, liquefied petroleum gas, and fertilizer, while an empty very large gas carrier entered the region, the same data. Prior to the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran on February 28, the strait typically accommodated around 125 large commercial vessels daily, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container ships.
In a significant development, attacks by Houthi forces on Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline have compelled the Saudi state energy company to boost exports through the Strait of Hormuz for September and October, after suspending some shipments via Yanbu. This adjustment has allowed Saudi crude exports to rebound above 4 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this month, recovering from a low of 2.4 million bpd in August—the lowest level recorded since at least 2013, based on preliminary Kpler data.
During the week of September 13, a total of 18 tankers, primarily very large crude carriers transporting 34 million barrels of crude, passed through the strait. Saudi Arabia accounted for approximately half of these exports, with Iraq contributing about 35% of the volume.
JPMorgan analysts noted in a September 18 report that Middle Eastern oil flows remain surprisingly robust despite disruptions to Saudi Arabia’s pipeline infrastructure. They highlighted that total oil throughput averaged 17.1 million bpd over the past ten days, just 6.1 million bpd below the projected 2025 average.
The analysts emphasized Saudi Arabia’s notable shift, with satellite data showing Saudi oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 2.9 million bpd over the last six days, a significant increase from only 700,000 bpd in August.
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