Japan is preparing to relax its strict arms export regulations, a move that has attracted significant attention from countries including Poland and the Philippines. This shift comes as US President Donald Trump’s fluctuating security commitments and ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine place strain on American weapons supplies. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party approved the changes this week, aiming to revitalize Japan’s pacifist nation’s military-industrial sector. The government is expected to formalize the new rules within this month.
Although Japan has largely remained isolated from global arms markets since World War II, it allocates $60 billion annually to its military, supporting a robust defense industry capable of producing advanced technology such as submarines and fighter jets. Potential buyers include the Polish military and the Philippine navy, both modernizing amid regional security challenges, interviews with Japanese officials and foreign diplomats in Tokyo.
Defense contractors Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric are expanding their workforce and production capacity to meet rising demand. Executives from these companies revealed new details about their preparations. One of the earliest anticipated deals involves exporting used frigates to the Philippines, which is engaged in maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea. This sale could be followed by missile defense system exports.
Poland and Japan see opportunities for mutual support, particularly in anti-drone and electronic warfare technologies. Mariusz Boguszewski, deputy chief of mission at Poland’s embassy in Japan, noted that cooperation could help overcome certain capability gaps, though he did not specify particular agreements. Last year, Poland’s WB Group signed a preliminary drone deal with Japanese aircraft manufacturer ShinMaywa.
Several European diplomats highlighted that Japan’s policy shift offers a chance to reduce heavy reliance on US weapons production, which is currently stretched thin due to ongoing conflicts. Trump’s unpredictable actions, including threats to withdraw from NATO and proposals to invade Greenland, have intensified efforts to diversify defense suppliers. Masahiko Arai, senior vice president at Mitsubishi Electric’s defense division, confirmed that offers are arriving from multiple countries. Mitsubishi has increased staffing in London and Singapore to support export activities.
Prime Minister Takaichi’s office declined to comment on specific inquiries but referred to a February 20 speech where she emphasized reviewing export controls to strengthen Japan’s defense production and enhance allied capabilities. The export policy overhaul has been encouraged by previous US administrations, including Trump’s, to promote greater allied contributions to collective defense.
China’s foreign ministry expressed concerns about Japan’s potential frigate exports to the Philippines, urging Tokyo to exercise caution in military and security matters. The Philippines defense ministry declined to comment on the anticipated transactions.
Japan’s initial steps to relax arms export restrictions began over a decade ago under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who sought to encourage joint arms development with allies to counter China’s growing military power. However, many limitations, especially on lethal weapons, remained in place, and companies were hesitant to pursue overseas defense sales.
Following a decisive election victory and the departure of a coalition partner opposed to major reforms, Takaichi aims to stimulate arms manufacturers to expand production capacity in support of a significant military buildup. Some defense firms are preparing to adapt; Toshiba plans to hire around 500 employees over the next three years and is building new testing and manufacturing facilities. It has also created a dedicated department for defense exports. Kenji Kobayashi, Toshiba’s defense division vice president, noted that reputational risks associated with arms sales have diminished.
Some large Japanese companies with defense-related operations but broader consumer markets remain cautious about arms sales potentially affecting their wider customer base. Nevertheless, Kobayashi emphasized focusing on fulfilling their role and growing the business. Mitsubishi Electric is actively recruiting for overseas sales positions covering fighter aircraft and other military exports. Demand is strongest in Asia, with Europe, Australia, and the US offering opportunities for components and joint development. Arai projects a 50% increase in sales at Mitsubishi Electric’s defense unit, reaching 600 billion yen ($3.8 billion) by 2031.
Despite political support, some companies remain hesitant. Latvia’s ambassador to Japan, Zigmars Zilgalvis, cited Toyota’s refusal to supply engines and parts for a military utility vehicle to Latvian firm VR Cars in 2023 as an example. Toyota Customising & Development stated the decision was based on their business scope and policy and declined to comment on Japan’s upcoming export policy revisions. VR Cars respected the decision.
Japan is expected to maintain strict controls on arms exports to conflict zones. However, Ukraine sees opportunities amid the changes. Kyiv’s chamber of commerce in Tokyo plans to launch a new industry group combining Ukrainian and Japanese drone companies to foster technological development, coinciding with the policy update, Kateryna Yavorska, head of the chamber.
In a significant development, Japan is emerging from its post-World War II self-imposed restrictions, with the US continuing to dominate global military supply chains.
