OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase in oil production on Sunday, though this rise will mostly be theoretical as key members remain unable to boost output due to the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Since late February, the war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit route, severely restricting exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. These countries were the only ones within the group capable of significantly increasing production prior to the conflict.
Meanwhile, other members like Russia face constraints on output due to Western sanctions and damage sustained to infrastructure amid the war with Ukraine. In the Gulf region, missile and drone attacks have inflicted substantial damage on oil facilities, further complicating production efforts. Several Gulf officials have indicated that even if hostilities ceased and the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, it would take months to restore normal operations and meet production targets.
At its previous meeting on March 1, coinciding with the initial disruption of oil flows, OPEC+ agreed to a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April. Since then, the conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, estimated to have removed between 12 and 15 million barrels per day—equivalent to up to 15% of global supply. This has driven crude prices to nearly $120 per barrel, a four-year high.
In a significant development, JPMorgan warned on Thursday that oil prices could surge beyond $150 per barrel, an all-time peak, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through mid-May. Sunday’s meeting will focus on setting OPEC+ production quotas for May. While any approved increase will have minimal immediate effect on supply, it would demonstrate the group’s preparedness to raise output once the strait reopens, OPEC+ insiders.
Consultancy Energy Aspects described the potential output hike as “academic” as long as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, underscoring the limited practical impact of the decision under current conditions.
