In a significant revelation during the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee, the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, underscored Pakistan as one of the countries posing an escalating strategic threat to American security. She cautioned that Islamabad’s ongoing advancements in long-range missile technology could eventually place the US mainland within striking distance, a development that has raised eyebrows in international security circles.
Gabbard’s report did not single out Pakistan alone; it also identified Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea as nations actively pursuing the enhancement of missile delivery systems. These systems include both nuclear and conventional warheads, which collectively contribute to a growing threat environment for the United States. She emphasized that despite the US maintaining a robust and secure nuclear deterrent, the rapid evolution of missile technologies worldwide is reshaping the strategic landscape.
Specifically addressing Pakistan, Gabbard noted that the country’s ballistic missile program might be advancing towards capabilities that include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which could potentially reach American soil. This assertion marks a notable shift in the perception of Pakistan’s military capabilities, traditionally viewed as regionally focused. The intelligence chief also projected a sharp increase in the number of missile threats globally, estimating that missile inventories could surge to over 16,000 by 2035, a dramatic rise from the current figure of just above 3,000.
She further explained that the countries mentioned in the report are likely to closely monitor US missile defense strategies to tailor their own development programs accordingly, aiming to test and possibly circumvent Washington’s deterrence mechanisms. This dynamic underscores the complex interplay between offense and defense in modern strategic military planning.
In response to these claims, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, Jalil Abbas Jilani, firmly rejected the notion that Pakistan’s missile program poses a direct threat to the US homeland. He clarified that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains primarily focused on deterring India, its regional rival, rather than projecting power on a global scale. Jilani stressed that Islamabad’s strategic posture is deeply rooted in maintaining regional stability and responding to security challenges emanating from its immediate neighborhood.
Meanwhile, Turkish security analyst Shaqeq-ud-Din expressed skepticism regarding the US assessment, pointing out that Pakistan currently does not possess intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities. He raised concerns about India’s expanding ICBM arsenal, which he suggested is growing with external assistance. Shaqeq-ud-Din questioned the selective nature of threat classifications, implying that similar scrutiny might not be uniformly applied to all countries with missile capabilities.
The threat assessment report also highlighted South Asia as a persistent source of security challenges, particularly focusing on the fraught relationship between Pakistan and India. It noted that the two nuclear-armed neighbors continue to pose a risk of nuclear conflict, given their history of military confrontations and ongoing tensions. The report referenced the Pahalgam attack, which had previously escalated into a full-scale war, underscoring the fragile nature of peace in the region.
It is worth noting that the report acknowledged former US President Donald Trump’s role in de-escalating recent nuclear tensions between Pakistan and India. While both countries appear reluctant to return to open conflict, the report warned that conditions remain ripe for terrorist groups to provoke crises that could spiral into broader confrontations.
In a related development, the report shed light on the volatile situation along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. It described the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban as tense, marked by intermittent cross-border clashes. Islamabad’s frustration is mounting over the presence of anti-Pakistan terrorist groups operating from Afghan territory, which has contributed to an increase in terrorist violence within Pakistan itself.
The assessment quoted Pakistan’s army chief, who recently emphasized that sustainable peace in the region hinges on the Taliban severing ties with militants targeting Pakistan. Although the Taliban publicly advocate for dialogue, they have consistently denied harboring anti-Pakistani militants, maintaining a complex and often contradictory stance. This ongoing conflict between the two entities continues to complicate regional security dynamics.
