China is poised to gain a stronger bargaining position over the United States as President Donald Trump postpones his planned visit to Beijing, entangled in the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Originally scheduled for late this month, the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has been pushed back by several weeks due to the fallout from the recent military actions involving Israel and Iran. This delay comes at a critical moment, as the region is engulfed in violence, energy prices have surged to multi-year highs, and fears of global supply chain disruptions loom large following Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s decision last month to align with Israel in strikes against Iran has dramatically intensified regional instability, complicating Washington’s diplomatic landscape. The US president now faces mounting challenges in articulating a clear endgame for the intervention, while traditional allies remain hesitant to fully support the American stance. This precarious position could compel Trump to approach the upcoming China summit with a pressing need to secure a diplomatic victory, potentially altering the dynamics of US-China relations.
Experts note that what was intended as a demonstration of American strength to deter Beijing has instead exposed vulnerabilities in US influence. Ali Wyne, a senior adviser on US-China affairs at the International Crisis Group, observes that Washington’s inability to independently reopen the Strait of Hormuz has forced it to seek cooperation from its main strategic rival. This shift underscores a significant recalibration in global power relations, with China gaining unexpected leverage amid the crisis.
President Trump recently indicated that he anticipates traveling to China within the next five to six weeks. The summit aims to formalize a tariff truce initially agreed upon during a meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea last October. However, given the current geopolitical turmoil and Trump’s weakened negotiating position, Beijing may push for more substantial tariff reductions and resist US demands on other trade-related issues, such as access to critical minerals essential for American industries and defense.
In recent developments, senior trade officials from both countries engaged in what they described as “constructive” discussions in Paris, setting the stage for the forthcoming summit. Despite this progress, analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of major breakthroughs, citing deep-seated mistrust after years of disputes over trade policies, technology transfers, and human rights concerns. Furthermore, new US investigations into excess industrial capacity in multiple countries, including China, have further strained bilateral relations.
As the Middle East conflict drags on, Beijing’s strategic leverage over Washington is expected to grow, at least in the short term. China has so far declined to assist in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. Additionally, Beijing continues to maintain strict controls over exports of rare earth elements, which are vital for US military technology. These minerals are indispensable for manufacturing advanced weaponry such as drones, fighter jets, missile guidance systems, and radar equipment. Jason Bedford, a senior research scholar at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, highlights that China’s dominance in this sector gives it the theoretical ability to disrupt US weapons production if it chooses.
The absence of any announcements regarding progress on the Strait of Hormuz or rare earth exports following the Paris talks suggests that no concrete agreements were reached. While Xi and Trump may have additional opportunities to meet later this year, the prospects for significant breakthroughs beyond tariff adjustments appear limited, Eurasia Group analysts.
China could also strategically modulate its actions to further undermine Trump’s domestic standing, especially as public opinion in the United States increasingly opposes military involvement in the Middle East. Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, points out that the Trump administration is eager for China to purchase American agricultural products, a key issue for Republican prospects in upcoming midterm elections. Failure to stabilize relations with China could therefore present serious political challenges for Trump at home.
Despite these tensions, any summit between Xi and Trump is unlikely to alter the fundamental geopolitical objectives of either country. Recently, the Trump administration announced it is considering easing certain sanctions on Iranian oil to help curb rising energy prices—a move that experts believe could indirectly benefit China. Beijing is widely regarded as the primary purchaser of Iranian oil under sanctions, effectively serving as Tehran’s main economic lifeline. Moreover, China has little incentive to halt arms sales to Iran as long as the US continues to supply weapons to Taiwan, a point of ongoing contention in Sino-American relations.
On the streets of Beijing, public sentiment toward Trump’s potential visit remains cautious. A 50-year-old IT professional surnamed Huang expressed skepticism about the US president’s reliability, noting his unpredictable nature and tendency to reverse decisions. Conversely, a younger finance worker named Yang views the planned trip as a hopeful sign that the United States still seeks to maintain a constructive and amicable relationship with China. This mixed public perception reflects the complex and evolving nature of the bilateral relationship as both nations navigate a turbulent global landscape.
