Recent assessments from US intelligence agencies reveal that Iran’s ruling establishment continues to maintain firm control over the country, even after nearly two weeks of sustained military operations by the United States and Israel. Contrary to some expectations, the regime does not appear to be on the verge of collapse, multiple intelligence evaluations conducted in the past few days. These findings come as a result of extensive surveillance and analysis, highlighting the resilience of Iran’s political and military leadership despite the ongoing bombardments.
The intelligence community has gathered a wide array of reports that consistently indicate the Iranian government remains stable and retains significant influence over its population. Officials familiar with these assessments emphasize that the regime’s grip on power has not weakened substantially, even in the face of targeted strikes against critical infrastructure and key figures within the government. This stability persists despite the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, which coincided with the initial phase of the US and Israeli military campaign.
Meanwhile, political pressures continue to mount in Washington as soaring global oil prices fuel economic concerns. President Donald Trump has publicly hinted at the possibility of concluding the largest US military operation since the Iraq invasion in 2003, signaling a desire to bring the conflict to an end in the near future. However, the challenge remains significant, as the entrenched nature of Iran’s hardline leadership complicates efforts to negotiate a resolution that would satisfy all parties involved.
Israeli officials, engaged in confidential discussions, have also acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the conflict. A senior Israeli source confirmed that there is no guarantee the ongoing military campaign will result in the overthrow of Iran’s clerical government. The volatile situation on the ground means that conditions could shift rapidly, potentially altering the internal dynamics within Iran. Nevertheless, the current intelligence consensus points to a regime that, for now, remains cohesive and in control.
The US and Israeli military operations have targeted a broad spectrum of Iranian assets, including air defense systems, nuclear facilities, and senior leadership figures. While President Trump initially called on the Iranian people to rise up and seize control of their government, subsequent statements from his administration have downplayed regime change as an explicit objective. Despite the elimination of numerous high-ranking officials and commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary organization with substantial economic and political influence, the IRGC and interim leadership continue to exert authority across the country.
Following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, the Assembly of Experts—a council of senior Shiite clerics—has reportedly appointed Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader. This move underscores the regime’s efforts to maintain continuity and prevent a power vacuum during this critical period. However, sources indicate that Israel remains determined to dismantle any remnants of the previous government structure, viewing this as essential to achieving long-term security objectives.
Despite the ongoing airstrikes and targeted killings, the current military strategy has yet to demonstrate a clear path toward toppling the Iranian government. Experts suggest that a successful regime change would likely require a substantial ground invasion, coupled with conditions that enable widespread public protests within Iran to unfold safely. The Trump administration has not ruled out the possibility of deploying US troops on Iranian soil, but such a move would represent a significant escalation with unpredictable consequences.
