OPEC+ is reportedly contemplating a substantial increase in oil production beyond its initially planned rise of 411,000 barrels per day at the upcoming meeting scheduled for Sunday. This development comes in the wake of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stepping up their oil exports, a move that appears to be a strategic response to the heightened risk of supply disruptions following recent U.S.-Israeli military actions targeting Iran on Saturday.
The coalition, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) alongside allied producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman, has eight members set to convene at 1100 GMT on Sunday. The timing of this meeting is critical, as global oil markets remain on edge due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fears that any conflict involving Iran and the United States could severely impact oil flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Despite concerns that an oversupply might depress prices, crude oil has experienced a notable rally this year. Prices surged to $73 per barrel on Friday, marking the highest level since July. This price increase reflects market anxieties over potential disruptions rather than fundamental supply shortages. Initially, delegates from the eight OPEC+ countries had anticipated agreeing on a modest production increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day for April. This increment was intended to address the expected rise in demand during the upcoming summer months, particularly driven by the U.S. driving season, and to counterbalance the price effects of anticipated U.S. military actions against Iran.
However, recent developments suggest that the group is now considering a much larger boost in output. Two insiders familiar with the negotiations revealed that an increase of 411,000 barrels per day—nearly triple the previously discussed figure—is on the table. One source even indicated the possibility of an even more substantial hike, potentially reaching 548,000 barrels per day. This shift underscores the urgency felt by OPEC+ members to stabilize the market amid uncertainty and to preempt any supply shortages that could arise from geopolitical conflicts.
Evidence has emerged that some of the region’s largest oil producers have already begun ramping up their exports in anticipation of possible disruptions. Abu Dhabi, a key UAE oil producer, is reportedly preparing to ship higher volumes of its flagship Murban crude in April, trade insiders. Similarly, Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter within OPEC, has increased both production and exports as part of a broader contingency strategy designed to mitigate the impact of any sudden supply interruptions.
It is important to note that prior to this potential adjustment, the eight OPEC+ members had collectively agreed to raise their production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025. This increase accounted for roughly 3% of global oil demand. However, they had planned to pause further output hikes from January to March 2026, anticipating a seasonal slowdown in demand. The current geopolitical climate, however, appears to be prompting a reassessment of these plans to ensure market stability and to meet global energy needs.
