Islamabad and Kabul are urged to resolve their ongoing disputes through constructive dialogue facilitated by neutral and friendly countries, as tensions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border continue to escalate. The recent surge in militant attacks, particularly in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, has raised serious concerns about regional stability and security. Experts emphasize that Islamabad must also reassess its counter-insurgency approach by engaging local communities and enhancing cooperation between military forces and provincial law enforcement agencies to effectively address the growing threat.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) has highlighted these issues in its latest report titled “Responding to the Militant Surge on the Afghan Border.” Samina Ahmed, the ICG’s Senior Project Director for South Asia and Senior Asia Adviser, pointed out that violence driven primarily by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has reached levels unseen in over ten years, making 2025 one of the deadliest years in recent memory. This alarming rise in militant activity has prompted Islamabad to conduct cross-border strikes into Afghan territory, underscoring the rapid deterioration of relations with Kabul.
Pakistan has made it clear that it will not hesitate to take further military action if the Afghan Taliban fail to rein in TTP leaders and fighters operating from Afghan soil. This stance significantly raises the risk of renewed armed conflict between the two neighboring countries. The Taliban authorities are therefore urged to take credible and concrete measures to prevent cross-border attacks and incursions, as failure to do so will only deepen the cycle of retaliation and instability in the region.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian and economic consequences of the ongoing tensions are becoming increasingly severe. Mass deportations of Afghan nationals from Pakistan and prolonged border closures have intensified hardships for vulnerable populations on both sides. The report stresses that the most at-risk groups, including women, children, and refugees, should not be forcibly returned to unsafe conditions. Instead, Islamabad and Kabul must urgently resume negotiations, with mediation support from trusted international partners such as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to find a peaceful resolution.
It is important to recognize Pakistan’s sovereign right to regulate the entry of foreigners, including Afghans, requiring legal documentation such as visas. However, the government is encouraged to streamline the process for issuing and extending visas, especially for Afghan women’s rights activists, journalists, and those seeking medical treatment or educational opportunities in Pakistan. Civil society organizations, local and international NGOs, and UN agencies also have a critical role to play in addressing the educational, healthcare, and economic needs of Afghan refugees residing in Pakistan. Furthermore, Western countries are urged to expedite the resettlement of refugees who have been approved for relocation, prioritizing those most in need of protection.
Top Pakistani officials have warned that if TTP attacks persist, cross-border military strikes could become a recurring strategy. However, senior policymakers caution against relying solely on force to tackle the complex issue of militancy. A former senior diplomat emphasized the necessity of a more nuanced approach that combines diplomatic engagement with incentives to encourage cooperation. While the resumption of high-level talks remains unlikely until the Afghan Taliban demonstrate a stronger commitment to policing their borders, Islamabad can still utilize back-channel communications through its embassy and consulates in Afghanistan to express concerns and manage tensions, particularly in the aftermath of violent militant incidents.
Currently, there is no mutual agreement between Islamabad and Kabul on how to handle TTP leaders and fighters based in Afghanistan, which complicates efforts to find common ground. In this context, the involvement of countries maintaining good relations with both Pakistan and Afghanistan has become increasingly vital to prevent the outbreak of renewed armed conflict. Although previous mediation efforts led by Qatar and Turkey ended in a stalemate, they succeeded in establishing a ceasefire that has largely held despite sporadic clashes. Both sides agreed to refrain from hostile acts, but the absence of a formal mechanism to enforce these commitments has contributed to the current deadlock.
Given the slim prospects for direct bilateral talks in the near future, external mediators such as Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia could play a pivotal role in facilitating dialogue and reducing tensions. The widespread anti-militant sentiment across the region presents an opportunity for state forces to garner local support. However, for counter-insurgency operations to be truly effective, the concerns of local communities regarding security and economic impacts must be taken into account. Strengthening the provincial police force in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and ensuring their responsiveness to local needs remains a key demand from political and social leaders in the conflict-affected area. Additionally, improved coordination between federal and provincial authorities and law enforcement agencies is essential to enhance overall security efforts.
While Islamabad maintains a firm stance against the use of Afghan territory for launching attacks into Pakistan, it must also recognize that resorting to cross-border military actions carries the risk of escalating into full-scale armed conflict. Instead, both Islamabad and Kabul should leverage diplomatic platforms offered by friendly nations to communicate their concerns and work towards peaceful solutions. Ultimately, finding non-violent means to resolve differences will better serve the long-term interests of both Pakistan and Afghanistan, fostering stability and cooperation in a region that has long been plagued by conflict.
