Pakistan has expressed significant apprehension regarding India’s ambitious plan to invest nearly $60 billion in constructing large-scale storage facilities along the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. These two rivers are among the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark agreement that has governed water sharing between the two countries for decades. Islamabad’s officials warn that the expansion of upstream storage capacity by India could give New Delhi the ability to control and manipulate river flows, potentially leading to severe drought conditions during critical agricultural periods and sudden, destructive flooding during the monsoon season.
During a high-level federal-provincial dialogue on water storage held on February 17, the chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), retired Lieutenant General Muhammad Saeed, highlighted the gravity of the situation. He revealed that India’s proposed projects would dramatically increase its storage capacity on the Jhelum and Chenab rivers from the current approximate level of 15 days’ worth of flow to an estimated 55 to 60 days. This substantial increase in storage duration could provide India with a powerful tool to regulate water supply downstream, directly impacting Pakistan’s water availability.
One participant at the meeting cautioned that this expanded storage capacity would allow India to halt or drastically reduce the normal flow of water for nearly two months, precisely when Pakistan’s farmers depend most on these waters for irrigation. Such a scenario could trigger drought-like conditions across vital agricultural zones, threatening food security and the livelihoods of millions of farmers. The participant further warned that the enlarged reservoirs would also enable India to release large volumes of water at short notice, increasing the risk of sudden floods. Pakistan has already experienced flood-like situations caused by India’s current 15-day storage capacity; a fourfold increase would make such events far more dangerous, especially during heavy rainfall or the monsoon season.
In light of these developments, Pakistani authorities are advocating for the accelerated construction of large-scale reservoirs within the country. These domestic storage projects are seen as essential for capturing surplus floodwaters that currently flow unused into the sea. Moreover, they would provide a critical buffer against sudden upstream water releases by India, while ensuring water availability during periods of reduced river flows. WAPDA’s chairman emphasized the urgent need to develop new flood-control reservoirs to conserve excess water and protect Pakistan from potential upstream shocks. One official described India’s growing storage infrastructure as a form of “weaponisation of river flows,” framing it as an existential threat to Pakistan’s water security and agricultural stability.
The February 17 meeting was chaired by Water Resources Minister Mian Moeen Wattoo and included the prime minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the chief minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Notably, provincial chief ministers were absent, despite directives from the prime minister for chief secretaries and irrigation secretaries to attend. Representatives from Sindh voiced concerns that Pakistan is already facing severe water shortages, arguing that current river flows do not justify the construction of large dams. They highlighted the struggles of lower-riparian areas to secure adequate drinking water under existing conditions and warned that additional upstream storage could exacerbate these shortages. Sindh officials called for comprehensive feasibility and economic assessments before proceeding with new projects, implicitly referencing the technical and financial difficulties encountered in the Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Project.
Meanwhile, representatives from Gilgit-Baltistan sought formal inclusion or at least observer status in the Indus River System Authority to ensure the region has a voice in national water management decisions. The prime minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir expressed support for further dams, storage facilities, and hydropower projects in Kashmir, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that local communities receive tangible financial benefits. This approach aims to secure local support and ensure that the people living in the river source areas also profit from their contributions to Pakistan’s water and energy security.
Punjab province expressed full support for new flood-storage projects and offered to engage directly with Sindh to address its concerns, proposing institutional guarantees to protect provincial interests. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa urged the early implementation of the Chashma Right Bank Canal lift-cum-gravity scheme, highlighting that delays have prevented the province from fully utilizing its allocated water share. WAPDA’s chairman reassured participants that tenders for this project have already been issued and that it will be prioritized moving forward.
In a related development, WAPDA has finalized plans to construct four medium-sized storage reservoirs on the Chenab River near Jhang, Chiniot, Sargodha, and Wazirabad. The combined cost of these projects is estimated at Rs300 billion, with a total storage capacity of approximately 4.5 million acre-feet. As upstream developments on the western rivers accelerate, this dialogue highlights the growing urgency within Pakistan to expand its domestic water storage infrastructure and enhance resilience against potential disruptions to river flows governed by the Indus Waters Treaty.
Overall, the situation underscores the complex and sensitive nature of water sharing between India and Pakistan, where infrastructure developments on one side can have profound implications for the other. Pakistan’s push for enhanced water storage capacity reflects a strategic response aimed at safeguarding its agricultural sector and ensuring long-term water security amid evolving challenges in the region.
