Under the intense heat of Pakistan’s southern mango belt, workers swiftly climb tree branches, tossing freshly harvested mangoes into sacks held by farmhands below. Despite the mango season being in full swing since June in Sindh province, the volume destined for export markets is significantly lower than usual. Pakistan’s agriculture-reliant economy is feeling the strain of the ongoing Middle East conflict, a crisis the government has recently helped mediate.
In a notable development, a preliminary ceasefire agreement between the conflicting parties was announced this week, but it arrived too late to benefit the current mango season. Traders anticipate a decline of at least 30% in export sales this year, attributing the fall to weakened demand in key markets such as the Gulf region and sharply increased shipping expenses. Domestic sales have also suffered as local consumers, grappling with inflation triggered by the regional turmoil, are reluctant to purchase mangoes.
In Tando Allahyar, the heart of mango cultivation, orchard manager Mohammad Shakeel oversees groves of the prized Sindhri variety, known for its rich taste and juicy texture. Shakeel expressed concern that his business might not generate enough revenue to cover orchard lease costs, with some leaseholders abandoning their contracts altogether. “Significant losses have been incurred, and some contractors have forfeited their advance payments,” he explained.
Pakistan, often referred to as the “king of fruits” producer in South Asia, cultivates over two dozen mango varieties and typically earns about $110 million annually from international sales, ranking it as the world’s fourth-largest mango exporter. The current challenges highlight the vulnerability of Pakistan’s economy, which depends heavily on agriculture already strained by climate change effects.
Waheed Ahmed, Chief Patron of the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporter Association, emphasized that nearly 80% of mango exports go to the Gulf countries, Iran, and Afghanistan—all regions currently affected by conflict. He projected a reduction of approximately 30,000 tonnes in mango exports this year, down to 80,000 tonnes. “The border with Afghanistan remains closed, Iran is embroiled in war, and the entire Middle East is in turmoil,” Ahmed noted.
While the recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran offers some hope, it remains uncertain and came too late to influence this year’s roughly three-month mango season. Trade with Afghanistan has also stalled due to ongoing conflict, leaving hundreds of trucks stranded at closed border points for months. Additionally, blockades near the Strait of Hormuz have driven up energy prices, causing shipping costs to surge dramatically. Ahmed estimated that the cost to ship a 25-tonne container of mangoes has risen from about $1,400 last year to between $6,000 and $7,000 this year.
Any expectation that surplus mangoes flooding local markets might compensate for lost export revenue has been undermined by consumers’ financial difficulties amid rising prices for essential goods. In Karachi’s bustling outdoor markets, customer Muhammad Ashad observed mango prices at roughly Rs 200 ($0.72) per kilogram—about half of last year’s price. “Mangoes are much cheaper this season due to halted exports,” he said, adding, “Despite the availability of good-quality mangoes, many people cannot afford to buy them.”
Pakistan’s inflation rate surged to 10% in the three months following the conflict’s outbreak, up from 5.5% during the July-February period, government data. Shakeel confirmed the impact on local sales, stating, “Prices are low in the domestic market, but many cannot afford mangoes. With rising expenses and low incomes, people must choose between buying bread or mangoes.”
