The possibility of planes being grounded due to jet fuel shortages is becoming increasingly real as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. While the exact timing of supply exhaustion is uncertain, the risk is most acute in Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe, both heavily reliant on oil and refined products from the Gulf region.
Claudio Galimberti, an economist at Rystad Energy, cautioned on Tuesday that within three to four weeks, the jet fuel shortage could escalate into a systemic crisis. He predicted significant flight reductions in Europe could begin as early as May and June. Galimberti also noted that some flights have already been canceled due to fuel scarcity, although the European Commission stated there is currently no shortage of jet fuel within the European Union. Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen acknowledged, however, that supply challenges could emerge soon, particularly affecting jet fuel availability.
Last week, Airports Council International Europe alerted the European Commission that jet fuel shortages might start within three weeks—early May—if tanker shipments through the Strait of Hormuz do not resume. The Strait, a critical transit route for about 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas, has been nearly blocked since February 28, following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), also warned Europe could face jet fuel shortages possibly beginning in May. However, the IEA’s latest monthly oil market report, released Tuesday, projected a slightly later timeline. It indicated that if the global jet fuel market tightens further and Europe cannot recover more than half of its lost Middle East supplies, stockpiles could reach a critical 23-day level by June.
The situation varies widely by country. Japan, despite heavy import dependence, has substantial reserves. Within Europe, Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland maintain comfortable jet fuel stocks, whereas Britain, Iceland, and the Netherlands face tighter supplies. France’s position is intermediate. The impact will also differ among airports and airlines, with smaller, inland airports expected to be more vulnerable than major hubs. ING Bank economist Rico Luman predicted partial flight cancellations rather than a complete halt at some locations.
Airlines currently face significant uncertainty in planning flight schedules. Airlines for Europe (A4E), representing carriers such as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, and Ryanair, has urged the European Union to provide real-time data on jet fuel stocks at airports. This information would need to come from fuel suppliers, who are reluctant to share commercially sensitive data with their largest clients.
Meanwhile, TotalEnergies’ CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned that if Gulf oil supplies remain blocked through June, the company will struggle to meet all customer demands. He stated that a blockade lasting beyond three months would cause serious supply problems for products like jet fuel.
In response, A4E has proposed that the European Commission consider temporarily authorizing imports of US jet fuel, which is produced to slightly different standards. However, political and logistical challenges make such a move unlikely in the near term.
