OPEC+ has decided to increase its oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, this modest boost will largely remain theoretical as key members are currently unable to raise output due to the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil transit route—since late February, severely limiting exports from Gulf members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. These countries had been the only OPEC+ members capable of significantly increasing production prior to the conflict.
As a result of the disruption, crude oil prices have surged to nearly $120 per barrel, reaching a four-year peak. This spike has driven up transport fuel costs globally, placing pressure on consumers and businesses and prompting governments to take measures to conserve fuel supplies. The planned OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day accounts for less than 2% of the supply lost due to the Strait’s closure, but it signals the group’s readiness to boost output once the waterway reopens.
Energy consultancy Energy Aspects described the increase as largely symbolic while the Strait remains closed. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and former OPEC official, noted that additional barrels from OPEC+ are effectively irrelevant as long as the Strait of Hormuz is inaccessible.
In a significant development, eight OPEC+ members agreed to the May quota increase during a virtual meeting on Sunday. However, other members such as Russia face their own production constraints due to Western sanctions and infrastructure damage sustained during the Ukraine conflict. Within the Gulf region, missile and drone attacks have inflicted severe damage on oil infrastructure, with Gulf officials warning it could take months to restore normal operations and meet production targets even if hostilities cease and the Strait reopens immediately.
Meanwhile, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, an OPEC+ panel that also convened on Sunday, expressed concern over the costly and time-consuming repairs required for energy assets damaged by attacks, highlighting the ongoing impact on supply.
On the diplomatic front, Iran stated on Saturday that Iraq faces no restrictions in transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data on Sunday confirmed that a tanker carrying Iraqi crude successfully passed through the Strait. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains over whether more vessels will risk transit under current conditions.
The May production increase matches the same quota rise agreed upon in April, just as the war began disrupting oil flows. The conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, estimated to have removed between 12 and 15 million barrels per day—up to 15% of global supply. JPMorgan warned that oil prices could surge beyond $150 per barrel, an all-time high, if the Strait remains closed into mid-May.
OPEC+ currently comprises 22 members, including Iran, but only eight countries have participated in monthly production decisions in recent years. These eight members began gradually reversing earlier output cuts in 2025 to regain market share, increasing quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025 before pausing further increases from January to March 2026. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for May 3.
