The ongoing war in Iran is increasingly impacting President Donald Trump’s legacy and elevating the political stakes for two of his closest allies: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both men, seen as leading contenders to succeed Trump, have become central figures in the evolving negotiations aimed at ending the conflict. This comes at a time when the Republican Party is already contemplating its direction after Trump’s presidency.
Vance has adopted a cautious stance, reflecting his skepticism toward extended U.S. military involvement overseas. In contrast, Rubio has aligned firmly with Trump’s hawkish policies and emerged as one of the administration’s most outspoken supporters of the campaign against Iran. Trump has acknowledged that both Vance and Rubio have played roles in efforts to compel Iran to comply with U.S. demands, including dismantling its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and ensuring free passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
With the 2028 presidential election approaching and Trump barred by term limits from running again, the president has been privately consulting with advisers and allies, posing the question: “JD or Marco?” The outcome of the U.S. military operation, now in its fifth week, could significantly influence the political futures of both men. A swift and favorable resolution might enhance Rubio’s standing, especially as he also serves as Trump’s national security adviser and could be perceived as a steady leader during a crisis. Conversely, a prolonged conflict could provide Vance with an opportunity to appeal to Trump’s base by embodying their anti-war sentiments without directly opposing the president.
Trump’s own approval ratings have suffered recently, dropping to 36%, the lowest since his return to office. This decline is attributed to rising fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the Iran war, a recent four-day poll. Many Republicans are closely observing which aide Trump appears to favor as the conflict unfolds. Some interpret Trump’s body language as leaning toward Rubio, though they caution that his preference could shift rapidly. A Republican close to the White House noted, “Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance.” However, the White House dismissed speculation about Trump’s favoritism, emphasizing the administration’s focus on serving the American people.
JD Vance, 41, a former Marine with combat experience in Iraq, has consistently opposed U.S. involvement in foreign wars. His public remarks on Iran have been measured and restrained. Trump has acknowledged their “philosophical differences” regarding the conflict. Once a self-described “never-Trumper,” Vance penned an opinion piece in 2023 praising Trump’s foreign policy for avoiding new wars during his first term. Despite this, the White House has downplayed any discord between the president and vice president. Earlier this month, standing alongside Trump in the Oval Office, Vance expressed support for the president’s handling of the war and agreed that Iran must be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Vance may assume a more direct role in negotiations if Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress. A spokesperson for Vance stated he is proud to be part of a highly effective team under Trump’s leadership that has enhanced America’s safety and prosperity. A senior White House official noted that Trump tolerates ideological differences among aides as long as loyalty remains intact, and that Vance’s skepticism reflects the views of a segment of Trump’s voter base. Vance plans to decide on a 2028 presidential run after the November midterm elections. At the Conservative Political Action Conference, Vance won the straw poll with 53% support among over 1,600 attendees, while Rubio gained ground, finishing second with 35%, up from 3% the previous year.
Marco Rubio, 54, has pledged not to run for president if Vance enters the race and reportedly would be content as Vance’s running mate. However, any perceived weakness in Vance’s position could encourage Rubio and other Republicans to pursue their own bids. Republican strategist Ron Bonjean remarked that Trump’s long memory might lead him to criticize Vance for insufficient allegiance, which could harm Vance’s chances if Trump remains popular with the MAGA base. Trump has even suggested the possibility of Vance and Rubio running together, describing them as a formidable team. A senior White House official emphasized that Trump does not want to anoint a successor prematurely.
Polling data from March shows 79% of Republicans view Vance favorably, with 19% unfavorable, while Rubio has a 71% favorable rating and 15% unfavorable. Trump himself holds a 79% favorable rating among Republicans. Rubio, whose 2016 presidential ambitions were derailed by a clash with Trump, has since reconciled with the president. The State Department spokesman highlighted Rubio’s strong professional and personal relationship with Trump’s team. Although Rubio faced backlash from some conservatives after suggesting Israel influenced the U.S. decision to enter the war, Trump has since praised Rubio’s efforts. A senior State Department official noted Rubio has not considered the war’s potential impact on his political future.
The differing approaches of Vance and Rubio were evident during a televised Cabinet meeting. Rubio strongly defended Trump’s military action against Iran, stating the president would not tolerate leaving such a threat unaddressed. Vance took a more measured tone, focusing on strategies to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and concluding by extending Easter blessings to Christians and U.S. troops in the Gulf, affirming continued support for servicemembers.
Conservative leader Matt Schlapp, who oversees CPAC, emphasized the significant political consequences of the Iran campaign. He suggested that success in the conflict could politically reward those involved, while a prolonged war would present challenges. Polling indicates strong Republican support for the strikes against Iran, with 75% approval compared to 6% among Democrats and 24% among independents.
