Global food prices climbed to their highest point since late 2022 in August, driven by extreme weather events, ongoing conflicts, and disruptions in trade that have raised alarms over the supply of essential food commodities, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced on Friday.
The FAO Food Price Index, which monitors monthly fluctuations in a basket of internationally traded food products, averaged 133.3 points in August, up from a revised 130.8 in July. This marks the highest level since November 2022, though it remains nearly 17% below the record peak observed in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In a significant development, FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero highlighted that the rise in global food prices signals a return of risk premiums in food markets. He pointed to the convergence of climate shocks, geopolitical tensions, and disrupted trade logistics as factors tightening supply expectations.
Extreme heat and drought across Europe, the looming threat of a severe El Niño weather pattern, and trade disturbances linked to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have unsettled agricultural markets. These factors pushed grain prices to three-year highs and sugar prices to a one-year peak.
All of the FAO’s key commodity benchmarks—including cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat, and dairy—experienced price increases in August. The adverse weather in Europe affected the outlook for maize and sugar beet harvests, as well as livestock production. Meanwhile, concerns over palm oil and sugar output in Asia were intensified by the anticipated El Niño phenomenon.
Escalating attacks in the Black Sea have restricted grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine amid their 4½-year-long conflict. Additionally, tensions between the US and Iran have disrupted fertilizer supplies critical for crop production.
The cereals price index rose 2.2% month-on-month, reaching its highest level since May 2024, while the vegetable oil index edged up 0.6%, marking its peak since June 2022. The sugar price benchmark surged 11.9% to its highest point since June 2025, driven by reduced production in Brazil’s vital centre-south region alongside weather-related concerns in Europe and Asia.
In a related update, the FAO lowered its global cereal production forecast for 2026 by 3.4 million metric tons from its July estimate, now projecting 2.980 billion tons. This revised figure is 2.0% below 2025 levels, representing the largest annual decline since 2018, although it would still be the second-largest harvest on record.
World cereal stock forecasts for the end of the 2026/2027 season were also adjusted downward by 1.1% to 947.2 million tons, leaving stocks only slightly above the previous season’s levels. The FAO noted that a reduction in coarse grain stock estimates outweighed an upward revision for wheat, which reflects an expected accumulation of stocks in Russia and Ukraine due to shipping disruptions.
