Iran and the United States engaged in a series of intensified attacks on Thursday, marking a week-long escalation that has effectively weakened the ceasefire established last month. However, Tehran’s decision to release an American citizen has been interpreted as a possible indication of a route toward de-escalation and avoidance of full-scale conflict.
For the first time since the memorandum of understanding paused hostilities last month, the US conducted two substantial waves of air strikes in a single day on Wednesday, primarily targeting locations near Iran’s southern coast. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles and drones against US military bases in neighboring countries, including a significant missile barrage on an expanded air base in Jordan.
This week’s surge in attacks has tested the boundaries of escalation agreed upon during the four months of fighting prior to the June truce. Amid the ongoing conflict, US President Donald Trump welcomed the release of a US citizen detained in Iran, describing it as a “gesture of goodwill.” Human rights lawyer Jared Genser identified the released individual as Dena Karari, who had been held in Iran since December 2024 on what were described as unfounded charges. Karari is now safe and en route back to the United States. Iran has not publicly commented on her case.
Historically, the release of US detainees in Iran has been managed through discreet negotiations that continued even when formal diplomatic relations were severed.
The renewed hostilities have once again nearly halted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical shipping lane for oil and gas, causing a spike in global energy prices. Despite this, prices remain well below wartime peaks, suggesting that market participants expect the crisis to subside.
The escalation began last week when Iran attacked vessels navigating a corridor in the strait outside its control, including a drone strike that ignited a fire aboard a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker. Iranian officials have indicated their intent to assert control over the strait. However, Tehran appears reluctant to provoke a broader conflict that would undermine the June memorandum, which it still views as largely favorable.
President Trump has declared the ceasefire outlined in the memorandum “over.” Within Iran, the renewed bombings have heightened public anxiety, especially following extensive memorial events for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which authorities portrayed as demonstrations of national unity and triumph.
“Living with the fear that war could restart is exhausting. We cannot continue like this. We are tired of war. What is our fault that we must endure this? Personally, I hope diplomacy prevails,” said Mahlegha, a 46-year-old government employee in Tehran.
Iran insists that all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must use a channel near its shores and has openly stated its plan to impose passage fees after a 60-day negotiation period set by last month’s agreement. The US has encouraged vessels to take an alternative route along the Omani coast without consulting Iran.
Following the recent flare-up, Iran declared the strait closed. The US responded by reinstating a blockade on Iranian ports starting Wednesday and fired upon an empty tanker in the strait, which it claimed was heading to Iran. The US military reported launching Hellfire missiles into the tanker’s smokestack near Kharg Island after warnings were ignored.
US forces assert their airstrikes targeted Iranian military installations along the coast to diminish Tehran’s control over the strait. Iran, however, maintains that its ability to dominate the strait does not depend solely on coastal bases. “The Americans believed that by attacking some of our southern coastal bases, they could seize control of this strategic strait,” said Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia. He added that Iran can exert control over the Strait of Hormuz from any part of its territory.
Three US officials indicated that the strikes might also be “shaping operations,” designed to degrade Iranian military capabilities and provide President Trump with more strategic options before potentially escalating further. “This is helping set the stage, if needed,” one official remarked.
Trump has not dismissed the possibility of deploying ground forces, including seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. He has reiterated threats to target Iranian power plants and bridges unless Tehran returns to negotiations.
General Akraminia warned that if such attacks occur, Iran’s armed forces would retaliate by targeting “all remaining infrastructure” in the region with responses more severe, widespread, and destructive than previous actions.
To date, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have concentrated on US bases in neighboring countries. On Thursday, Iran claimed to have targeted US military installations in Kuwait and Jordan, including a Jordanian air base recently upgraded by Washington into a regional command center.
Iran stated that the Jordanian base had been used to launch attacks on Iranian territory, including a strike in Ahvaz that damaged a nearby children’s cancer hospital, forcing its evacuation. “Our neighbors must understand that providing bases to the Americans to attack Iranian soil is unacceptable and will not go unanswered,” Iran’s military declared.
