The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has projected the start of the monsoon season in Pakistan from July 1, with the northeastern regions, including Punjab and Kashmir, anticipated to experience the initial rainfall. Northern areas and northeastern Punjab are also expected to receive precipitation from the same date.
Meanwhile, Sindh is unlikely to see monsoon rains before July 5. The PMD highlighted that a low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal could influence weather patterns in Sindh, including Karachi, potentially increasing the chances of rainfall. However, several parts of Sindh, Karachi included, are forecasted to receive below-average rainfall during this monsoon season.
In a significant development, the PMD has also predicted above-normal mean temperatures across the country for the month, with southern regions—spanning eastern Balochistan, western Sindh, and central Punjab—expected to experience particularly warmer conditions.
Data from May revealed that Sindh recorded only 0.3 millimeters of rainfall, which is 91.3% below the 1991–2020 average of 3.1 millimeters. The province’s mean temperature stood at 35.2°C, exceeding the normal by 1.0°C. For June, the department anticipates rainfall to be near or slightly below normal nationwide, with southern areas, including much of Sindh, showing probabilities of near-normal precipitation, though rainfall may vary significantly across different locations.
The PMD’s monthly outlook warned that above-average temperatures could elevate the risk of heat spikes and prolonged heatwaves, especially in the plains of Sindh, Punjab, and Balochistan. Reduced rainfall could further increase the likelihood of extended heat conditions in these regions.
Despite the forecast of below-normal rainfall, isolated heavy showers may still cause localized urban flooding in major cities, particularly in poorly drained and low-lying neighborhoods.
