The United States came close to becoming a net crude oil exporter last week, a milestone not reached since World War Two, as shipments surged to near-record levels. This increase was driven by strong demand from Asian and European buyers seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
The war between the US, Israel, and Iran has caused the largest disruption ever seen in the global energy market. Iranian threats to shipping have effectively halted about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, refiners in Asia and Europe, heavily reliant on these supplies, have turned to other sources, significantly boosting demand for US crude, the world’s top producer.
Data released on Wednesday showed that net imports of crude oil—the difference between imports and exports—narrowed to just 66,000 barrels per day last week, marking the lowest level on record since weekly data began in 2001. Meanwhile, exports climbed to 5.2 million barrels per day, the highest in seven months. Historically, the US last recorded net crude exports in 1943.
Notably, countries like Greece have purchased US crude for the first time in recent months. Approximately 2.4 million barrels per day, or 47% of US exports last week, were shipped to Europe, while about 1.49 million barrels per day, or 37%, went to Asia, up from 30% a year earlier. Key buyers included the Netherlands, Japan, France, Germany, and South Korea. Additionally, a tanker carrying 500,000 barrels was en route to Turkey, marking the first US crude export to that country in at least a year.
Meanwhile, US crude imports dropped by over 1 million barrels per day to 5.3 million barrels last week. Despite this, the US continues to import significant volumes because its refineries are configured to process heavier, sour crude grades, unlike the lighter, sweeter crude it produces domestically.
The disruption in Middle Eastern supplies caused the premium for Brent crude futures over US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures to surge to as much as $20.69 per barrel last month. This price gap reduced US demand for imports while making US crude more attractive to refiners in Europe and Asia. Physical crude oil cargo prices for prompt delivery to Europe reached near $150 per barrel on Monday, with African cargoes also hitting new highs.
US crude exports are approaching capacity limits. Analyst Matt Smith from Kpler noted that exports are expected to reach about 5.2 million barrels per day in April, pushing against monthly export capacity constraints. Traders and analysts estimate the US can export up to 6 million barrels per day, limited by pipeline infrastructure and vessel availability. The export record stands at 5.6 million barrels per day, set in 2023.
Dubai-based oil trader Bekzod Zukhritdinov commented that the market is already testing the export ceiling, with each additional barrel becoming increasingly costly in terms of freight and logistics. The release of medium sour crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could free up more light, low-sulfur US crude for export, Rystad Energy’s Shah. However, tanker shortages and rising freight rates may dampen export growth.
As of Wednesday, around 80 empty supertankers were heading to the Gulf of Mexico, likely to load crude during April and May, said Rohit Rathod, senior analyst at Vortexa, highlighting ongoing logistical challenges in meeting export demand.
